Sp Lisbon vs Nacional prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Sp Lisbon vs Nacional: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Sp Lisbon

WDWWW

Full time2-0Sat, 5 Sep 202620:30UK
Nacional

WDWLL

Model’s top convictions

91%

Sp Lisbon or draw

85%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Sp Lisbon 2-0 Nacional
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Sp Lisbon at 75.2%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 65.5% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 85.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 56.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 51.1% and it missed. We called Yes at 79.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 84.3% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 54.5% and it missed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 71.8% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 53.0% and it landed (22 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 62.5% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 73.2% and it landed.

Match data Sp Lisbon Nacional
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 19 3
Shots on target 8 2
Corners 12 0
Yellow cards 2 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 10 7

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Sp LisbonWin probability
75.2%
Top 3 convictions

Sp Lisbon or draw91.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.10
Over 1.5 goals85.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.17
Over 2.5 goals65.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.53

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Sp Lisbon, that gap is the story." Few Primeira Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Sp Lisbon carry a 75% win probability against Nacional on 5 September 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Sp Lisbon at 82%. Caution noted. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 66% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. Form guide over the last six: Sp Lisbon W5 D1 L0, Nacional W2 D1 L3. The recent series reads 5 wins for Sp Lisbon, 0 draws and 0 for Nacional over 5 games, 3.8 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.057 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners44.7%@ 2.24
Over 10.5 corners35.5%@ 2.82
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners54.7%@ 1.83
Both teams to score51.1%@ 1.96
Random finds

2-0 correct score11.4%@ 8.81
3-0 correct score9.7%@ 10.27
2-1 correct score9.1%@ 11.04

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Sp Lisbon

75.2%-6.4%

Draw

15.8%+2.9%

Nacional

9.0%+3.5%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.057 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.585.4%

High probability

Over 2.565.5%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes51.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.554.7%

Good chance

Over 9.544.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.527.5%

Low chance

Most cornersSp Lisbon56.5%Nacional33.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.1%

Good chance

Over 24.547.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.4%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.585.4%2.565.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.565.5%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Sp LisbonWDWWW
NacionalWDWLL

Last 5 meetings: Sp Lisbon 5 · 0 draws · Nacional 0 · 3.8 goals/game.

2026-02-01Sp Lisbon 2-1 Nacional
2025-08-23Nacional 1-4 Sp Lisbon
2025-01-25Sp Lisbon 2-0 Nacional
2024-08-17Nacional 1-6 Sp Lisbon
2021-05-01Sp Lisbon 2-0 Nacional

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Sp LisbonNacional
League position#2 of 18#10 of 18
Record W-D-L3-1-01-1-2
Current streakW3L2
Record, home vs away2-0-00-1-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.70 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 49% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Sp Lisbon win1.171.33
Draw6.506.33
Nacional win13.0011.11
Over 2.5 goals1.441.53
Under 2.5 goals2.702.90

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sp Lisbon win1.33
Draw6.35
Nacional win11.05
Both teams to score1.96

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.17
Over 2.5 goals1.53
Over 3.5 goals2.30
Over 4.5 goals3.99
Sp Lisbon most1.33
Nacional most11.05

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.46
Over 8.5 corners1.76
Over 9.5 corners2.20
Over 10.5 corners2.86
Sp Lisbon most1.76
Nacional most3.00

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.16
Over 3.5 cards1.39
Over 4.5 cards1.85
Over 5.5 cards2.75
Sp Lisbon most3.30
Nacional most1.93

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.35
Over 7.5 SoT1.60
Over 8.5 SoT2.00
Over 9.5 SoT2.62
Sp Lisbon most1.51
Nacional most4.34

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.69
Over 24.5 shots2.13
Over 26.5 shots2.81
Over 28.5 shots3.93
Sp Lisbon most1.52
Nacional most3.49

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.21
Over 22.5 fouls1.38
Over 24.5 fouls1.66
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 74.3% Over 7.5 62.5% Over 8.5 50.1% Over 9.5 38.2%
Most: Sp Lisbon 66.0% Most: Nacional 23.0%
Sp Lisbon Over 4.2 58.8% Nacional Over 4.2 27.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 86.5% Over 3.5 71.8% Over 4.5 53.9%
Most: Sp Lisbon 30.3% Most: Nacional 51.8%
Sp Lisbon Over 1.8 62.9% Nacional Over 1.8 76.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Sp Lisbon clean sheet 42.9%
Nacional clean sheet 7.6%
Sp Lisbon win to nil 39.1%
Nacional win to nil 3.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 75.2% draw 15.8% away 9.0%
double_chance
1X 91.0% 12 84.2% X2 24.8%
dnb
home 89.3% away 10.7%
btts
yes 51.1% no 48.9%
clean_sheet
home 45.0% away 7.6%
win_to_nil
home 41.2% away 3.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.2% home_by_2 21.4% home_by_3plus 32.6%
away_by_1 6.4% away_by_2 2.1% away_by_3plus 0.6%
correct_score
0-0 3.8% 0-1 2.4% 0-2 1.1%
0-3 0.3% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 8.5% 1-1 7.4% 1-2 2.8%
1-3 0.8% 1-4 0.2% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 11.4% 2-1 9.1% 2-2 3.6%
2-3 1.0% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 9.7% 3-1 7.8% 3-2 3.1%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 6.3% 4-1 5.0% 4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 3.2% 5-1 2.6% 5-2 1.0%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 4.7%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 11.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.2% under_0.5 3.8% over_1.5 85.4%
under_1.5 14.6% over_2.5 65.5% under_2.5 34.5%
over_3.5 43.6% under_3.5 56.4% over_4.5 25.1%
under_4.5 74.9% over_5.5 12.6% under_5.5 87.4%
odd_even
odd 49.2% even 50.8%
team_home
over_0.5 92.4% under_0.5 7.6% over_1.5 72.7%
under_1.5 27.3% over_2.5 47.5% under_2.5 52.5%
team_away
over_0.5 55.0% under_0.5 45.0% over_1.5 19.1%
under_1.5 80.9% over_2.5 4.8% under_2.5 95.3%
most
home 75.2% draw 15.8% away 9.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.6% away_+2.5 67.4% home_-1.5 54.0%
away_+1.5 46.0% home_-0.5 75.2% away_+0.5 24.8%
home_+0.5 91.0% away_-0.5 9.0% home_+1.5 97.3%
away_-1.5 2.7% home_+2.5 99.4% away_-2.5 0.6%
total_exact
exact_0 3.8% exact_1 10.9% exact_2 19.9%
exact_3 21.9% exact_4 18.5% exact_5 12.5%
exact_6 7.0% exact_7plus 5.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 65.3% draw 28.1% away 6.7%
total
over_0.5 79.2% under_0.5 20.8% over_1.5 46.5%
under_1.5 53.5% over_2.5 20.9% under_2.5 79.1%
btts
yes 15.8% no 84.2%
total_exact
exact_0 20.8% exact_1 32.7% exact_2 25.6%
exact_3 13.4% exact_4plus 7.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 56.9% draw 28.6% away 14.5%
total
over_0.5 84.3% under_0.5 15.8% over_1.5 55.1%
under_1.5 44.9% over_2.5 28.2% under_2.5 71.8%
btts
yes 29.8% no 70.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 59.9% H/D 4.2% H/A 1.1%
D/H 16.0% D/D 8.1% D/A 4.1%
A/H 1.7% A/D 1.8% A/A 3.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 68.3% under_7.5 31.7% over_8.5 56.9%
under_8.5 43.1% over_9.5 45.5% under_9.5 54.5%
over_10.5 35.0% under_10.5 65.0% over_11.5 25.8%
under_11.5 74.2% over_12.5 18.3% under_12.5 81.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.9% under_3.5 29.1% over_4.5 56.5%
under_4.5 43.5% over_5.5 42.5% under_5.5 57.5%
team_away
over_3.5 54.5% under_3.5 45.5% over_4.5 38.5%
under_4.5 61.5% over_5.5 25.4% under_5.5 74.6%
most
home 56.7% draw 10.0% away 33.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.4% away_+3.5 72.6% home_-1.5 46.4%
away_+1.5 53.6% home_-0.5 56.7% away_+0.5 43.3%
home_+0.5 66.7% away_-0.5 33.3% home_+1.5 75.6%
away_-1.5 24.4% home_+3.5 88.7% away_-3.5 11.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.1% under_22.5 40.9% over_24.5 47.1%
under_24.5 52.9% over_26.5 35.6% under_26.5 64.4%
over_28.5 25.4% under_28.5 74.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.7% under_10.5 27.3% over_12.5 57.4%
under_12.5 42.7% over_14.5 41.9% under_14.5 58.1%
team_away
over_10.5 47.0% under_10.5 53.0% over_12.5 30.3%
under_12.5 69.7% over_14.5 17.7% under_14.5 82.3%
most
home 65.9% draw 5.5% away 28.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.9% away_+4.5 58.1% home_-2.5 54.1%
away_+2.5 46.0% home_-0.5 65.9% away_+0.5 34.1%
home_+0.5 71.4% away_-0.5 28.6% home_+2.5 80.8%
away_-2.5 19.2% home_+4.5 88.1% away_-4.5 11.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 74.3% under_6.5 25.7% over_7.5 62.5%
under_7.5 37.5% over_8.5 50.1% under_8.5 49.9%
over_9.5 38.2% under_9.5 61.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.4% under_3.5 25.6% over_4.5 58.8%
under_4.5 41.2% over_5.5 43.1% under_5.5 56.9%
team_away
over_3.5 44.3% under_3.5 55.7% over_4.5 27.1%
under_4.5 73.0% over_5.5 14.9% under_5.5 85.1%
most
home 66.0% draw 10.9% away 23.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 41.1% away_+2.5 58.9% home_-0.5 66.0%
away_+0.5 34.0% home_+0.5 77.0% away_-0.5 23.0%
home_+2.5 91.7% away_-2.5 8.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 86.5% under_2.5 13.5% over_3.5 71.8%
under_3.5 28.2% over_4.5 53.9% under_4.5 46.1%
over_5.5 36.4% under_5.5 63.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.9% under_1.5 37.1% over_2.5 35.9%
under_2.5 64.1%
team_away
over_1.5 76.1% under_1.5 23.9% over_2.5 51.9%
under_2.5 48.1%
most
home 30.3% draw 17.9% away 51.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.2% away_+1.5 83.8% home_-0.5 30.3%
away_+0.5 69.7% home_+0.5 48.2% away_-0.5 51.8%
home_+1.5 66.3% away_-1.5 33.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 82.7% under_20.5 17.3% over_22.5 72.3%
under_22.5 27.7% over_24.5 60.1% under_24.5 39.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 75.6% under_9.5 24.4% over_11.5 57.7%
under_11.5 42.3% over_13.5 39.3% under_13.5 60.7%
team_away
over_9.5 82.6% under_9.5 17.4% over_11.5 67.2%
under_11.5 32.8% over_13.5 49.6% under_13.5 50.4%
most
home 39.6% draw 6.4% away 54.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.5% away_+3.5 77.5% home_-0.5 39.6%
away_+0.5 60.4% home_+2.5 59.0% away_-2.5 41.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 26.9% no 73.2%
home
yes 10.5% no 89.5%
away
yes 18.3% no 81.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sp Lisbon predictions · Nacional predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Primeira LigaSp LisbonNacionalTrack record