Alverca vs Sp Braga prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Alverca vs Sp Braga: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Alverca

LLDLD

Full time1-2Sat, 5 Sep 202618:00UK
Sp Braga

DDDDW

Model’s top convictions

77%

Draw or Sp Braga

76%

Over 1.5 goals

53%

Both teams to score

Full time11 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Alverca 1-2 Sp Braga
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
12 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Sp Braga at 51.8%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 50.7% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 75.8% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 71.3% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 52.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 68.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.5% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 58.4% and it landed (4 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 68.0% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 59.3% and it landed (22 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 53.7% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 85.6% and it landed.

Match data Alverca Sp Braga
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 2
Shots 6 16
Shots on target 2 6
Corners 2 2
Yellow cards 1 4
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 15

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Sp BragaWin probability
51.8%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Sp Braga77.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Over 1.5 goals75.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.32
Both teams to score52.8%Good chancePays @ 1.89

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Sp Braga at 52% against Alverca, Primeira Liga, 5 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Sp Braga higher (55%) than our model does. 2) No strong lean on goals (51% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Schedule edge: Alverca have had 3 more days of rest than Sp Braga. History adds colour: across the last 2 meetings it is 0 wins for Alverca, 0 draws and 2 for Sp Braga at 4.0 goals per match. The run in: Alverca arrive W0 D3 L3, Sp Braga W1 D4 L1. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.015 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners41.3%@ 2.42
Over 10.5 corners32.2%@ 3.11
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners51.4%@ 1.95
Over 2.5 goals50.7%@ 1.97
Alverca or draw48.2%@ 2.07
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.1%@ 8.25
0-1 correct score10.6%@ 9.43
1-2 correct score9.7%@ 10.36

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Alverca

22.8%+4.1%

Draw

25.4%-0.6%

Sp Braga

51.8%-3.5%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.015 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.550.7%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes52.8%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.551.4%

Good chance

Over 9.541.3%

Toss-up

Over 10.532.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.4%

Low chance

Most cornersAlverca50.0%Sp Braga39.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.552.8%

Good chance

Over 24.540.7%

Toss-up

Over 26.529.8%

Low chance

Over 28.520.6%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.8%2.550.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.575.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AlvercaLLDLD
Sp BragaDDDDW

Last 2 meetings: Alverca 0 · 0 draws · Sp Braga 2 · 4.0 goals/game.

2026-01-25Sp Braga 5-0 Alverca
2025-08-17Alverca 0-3 Sp Braga

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AlvercaSp Braga
League position#16 of 18#9 of 18
Record W-D-L0-2-21-1-0
Current streakD1W1
Record, home vs away0-2-00-1-0
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 2.70 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 49% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Alverca win4.754.39
Draw3.503.94
Sp Braga win1.711.93
Over 2.5 goals2.081.97
Under 2.5 goals1.732.03

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Alverca win4.39
Draw3.93
Sp Braga win1.93
Both teams to score1.89

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.32
Over 2.5 goals1.97
Over 3.5 goals3.49
Alverca most4.39
Sp Braga most1.93

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.54
Over 8.5 corners1.89
Over 9.5 corners2.41
Over 10.5 corners3.20
Alverca most1.99
Sp Braga most2.54

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.19
Over 3.5 cards1.47
Over 4.5 cards2.03
Over 5.5 cards3.12
Alverca most2.45
Sp Braga most2.50

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.50
Over 7.5 SoT1.86
Over 8.5 SoT2.44
Over 9.5 SoT3.39
Alverca most2.54
Sp Braga most2.12

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.90
Over 24.5 shots2.46
Over 26.5 shots3.36
Over 28.5 shots4.85
Alverca most1.93
Sp Braga most2.38

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.28
Over 22.5 fouls1.50
Over 24.5 fouls1.86
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.8% Over 7.5 53.7% Over 8.5 40.9% Over 9.5 29.5%
Most: Alverca 39.4% Most: Sp Braga 47.3%
Alverca Over 4.2 34.4% Sp Braga Over 4.2 40.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 84.1% Over 3.5 68.0% Over 4.5 49.4%
Most: Alverca 40.9% Most: Sp Braga 40.0%
Alverca Over 1.8 67.6% Sp Braga Over 1.8 67.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Alverca clean sheet 18.8%
Sp Braga clean sheet 35.4%
Alverca win to nil 11.5%
Sp Braga win to nil 28.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 22.8% draw 25.4% away 51.8%
double_chance
1X 48.2% 12 74.6% X2 77.2%
dnb
home 30.6% away 69.5%
btts
yes 52.8% no 47.2%
clean_sheet
home 18.8% away 35.7%
win_to_nil
home 11.5% away 28.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 14.3% home_by_2 6.1% home_by_3plus 2.4%
away_by_1 23.5% away_by_2 16.0% away_by_3plus 12.3%
correct_score
0-0 7.3% 0-1 10.6% 0-2 9.4%
0-3 5.2% 0-4 2.2% 0-5 0.7%
1-0 6.3% 1-1 12.1% 1-2 9.7%
1-3 5.4% 1-4 2.3% 1-5 0.8%
2-0 3.6% 2-1 5.9% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 2.8% 2-4 1.2% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 1.2% 3-1 2.1% 3-2 1.7%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.3% 4-1 0.5% 4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.7% under_0.5 7.3% over_1.5 75.8%
under_1.5 24.2% over_2.5 50.7% under_2.5 49.3%
over_3.5 28.7% under_3.5 71.3% over_4.5 13.8%
under_4.5 86.2% over_5.5 5.7% under_5.5 94.3%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 64.3% under_0.5 35.7% over_1.5 27.6%
under_1.5 72.4% over_2.5 8.6% under_2.5 91.4%
team_away
over_0.5 81.2% under_0.5 18.8% over_1.5 49.8%
under_1.5 50.2% over_2.5 23.6% under_2.5 76.4%
most
home 22.8% draw 25.4% away 51.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.4% away_+2.5 97.6% home_-1.5 8.5%
away_+1.5 91.5% home_-0.5 22.8% away_+0.5 77.2%
home_+0.5 48.2% away_-0.5 51.8% home_+1.5 71.7%
away_-1.5 28.3% home_+2.5 87.7% away_-2.5 12.3%
total_exact
exact_0 7.3% exact_1 17.0% exact_2 25.1%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 14.9% exact_5 8.1%
exact_6 3.6% exact_7plus 2.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 14.1% draw 40.7% away 45.2%
total
over_0.5 68.6% under_0.5 31.4% over_1.5 32.2%
under_1.5 67.8% over_2.5 11.1% under_2.5 88.9%
btts
yes 15.9% no 84.1%
total_exact
exact_0 31.4% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 21.1%
exact_3 8.1% exact_4plus 3.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.8% draw 35.3% away 37.9%
total
over_0.5 79.5% under_0.5 20.5% over_1.5 46.9%
under_1.5 53.1% over_2.5 21.2% under_2.5 78.8%
btts
yes 29.5% no 70.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 9.3% H/D 3.1% H/A 1.7%
D/H 10.9% D/D 14.4% D/A 15.4%
A/H 2.5% A/D 6.4% A/A 36.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 64.8% under_7.5 35.2% over_8.5 53.0%
under_8.5 47.0% over_9.5 41.6% under_9.5 58.4%
over_10.5 31.3% under_10.5 68.8% over_11.5 22.5%
under_11.5 77.5% over_12.5 15.6% under_12.5 84.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.7% under_3.5 35.3% over_4.5 49.3%
under_4.5 50.7% over_5.5 35.3% under_5.5 64.7%
team_away
over_3.5 57.0% under_3.5 43.0% over_4.5 41.0%
under_4.5 59.0% over_5.5 27.6% under_5.5 72.4%
most
home 50.1% draw 10.6% away 39.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.6% away_+3.5 78.4% home_-1.5 39.6%
away_+1.5 60.4% home_-0.5 50.1% away_+0.5 49.9%
home_+0.5 60.7% away_-0.5 39.3% home_+1.5 70.5%
away_-1.5 29.5% home_+3.5 85.7% away_-3.5 14.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 52.8% under_22.5 47.3% over_24.5 40.7%
under_24.5 59.3% over_26.5 29.8% under_26.5 70.3%
over_28.5 20.6% under_28.5 79.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 60.0% under_10.5 40.1% over_12.5 43.0%
under_12.5 57.0% over_14.5 28.2% under_14.5 71.8%
team_away
over_10.5 53.3% under_10.5 46.7% over_12.5 36.2%
under_12.5 63.8% over_14.5 22.5% under_14.5 77.6%
most
home 51.7% draw 6.2% away 42.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 27.9% away_+4.5 72.1% home_-2.5 39.3%
away_+2.5 60.7% home_-0.5 51.7% away_+0.5 48.3%
home_+0.5 57.9% away_-0.5 42.1% home_+2.5 69.7%
away_-2.5 30.3% home_+4.5 79.6% away_-4.5 20.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.8% under_6.5 33.2% over_7.5 53.7%
under_7.5 46.3% over_8.5 40.9% under_8.5 59.1%
over_9.5 29.5% under_9.5 70.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 52.3% under_3.5 47.7% over_4.5 34.4%
under_4.5 65.6% over_5.5 20.6% under_5.5 79.4%
team_away
over_3.5 57.9% under_3.5 42.1% over_4.5 40.0%
under_4.5 60.0% over_5.5 25.2% under_5.5 74.8%
most
home 39.4% draw 13.3% away 47.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 17.5% away_+2.5 82.5% home_-0.5 39.4%
away_+0.5 60.6% home_+0.5 52.7% away_-0.5 47.3%
home_+2.5 76.9% away_-2.5 23.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 84.1% under_2.5 15.9% over_3.5 68.0%
under_3.5 32.0% over_4.5 49.4% under_4.5 50.6%
over_5.5 32.1% under_5.5 68.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 67.6% under_1.5 32.4% over_2.5 41.2%
under_2.5 58.8%
team_away
over_1.5 67.1% under_1.5 32.9% over_2.5 40.6%
under_2.5 59.4%
most
home 40.9% draw 19.1% away 40.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 23.9% away_+1.5 76.1% home_-0.5 40.9%
away_+0.5 59.1% home_+0.5 60.0% away_-0.5 40.0%
home_+1.5 76.8% away_-1.5 23.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 78.4% under_20.5 21.6% over_22.5 66.8%
under_22.5 33.2% over_24.5 53.8% under_24.5 46.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 74.7% under_9.5 25.4% over_11.5 56.4%
under_11.5 43.6% over_13.5 38.0% under_13.5 62.0%
team_away
over_9.5 77.5% under_9.5 22.5% over_11.5 60.1%
under_11.5 39.9% over_13.5 41.8% under_13.5 58.2%
most
home 44.0% draw 6.7% away 49.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.7% away_+3.5 74.3% home_-0.5 44.0%
away_+0.5 56.0% home_+2.5 63.7% away_-2.5 36.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.4% no 85.6%
home
yes 9.0% no 91.0%
away
yes 6.0% no 94.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Alverca predictions · Sp Braga predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Primeira LigaAlvercaSp BragaTrack record