Primeira Liga
Moreirense vs 
Maritimo Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 69.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 85.2% for over 2.5 to 34.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.6%. Between the two sides, Moreirense are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.8%, with a level count at 18.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.2% | 14.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 34.2% | 65.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
70.5%
44.8%
66.6%
40.1%
Card handicap
| Moreirense line | Moreirense | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26.5% | 73.5% |
| -0.5 | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| +0.5 | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| +1.5 | 78.5% | 21.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 87.3% | 12.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 68.0% | 32.0% |
This season (2026/27)
3.6Moreirense cards per game14.2Moreirense fouls per game1.8Maritimo cards per game15.8Maritimo fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Moreirense vs Maritimo. Slightly more cards are projected for Moreirense for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
69.8%Over 3.5 cards9.0%Any red card70.5%Moreirense over 1.5 cards66.6%Maritimo over 1.5 cards78.8%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Moreirense over 1.5 cards sits at 70.5% and Maritimo at 66.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.0% (Moreirense 6.9%, Maritimo 2.2%). This season Moreirense have averaged 3.6 cards a game and Maritimo 1.8.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 69.8% for Moreirense vs Maritimo.
Will there be a red card in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
The model rates a red card for either side at 9.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
The model rates Moreirense to pick up more cards at 43.8%, with a level count at 18.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.