Primeira Liga
Maritimo vs 
Benfica Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 62.2% and it landed. We called Under 3.5 at 60.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.7% and it landed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 62.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Maritimo have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, Benfica 3.2 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 62.2% for over 2.5 and 83.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. Maritimo have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Benfica in 5 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.6% | 4.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 83.4% | 16.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| 4.5 goals | 22.1% | 77.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 10.6% | 89.4% |
Team goal lines
57.5%
21.1%
5.6%
90.5%
68.1%
41.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 21.5% | 78.5% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 44.9% | 55.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 19.6% | 80.4% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
52.4%Both Teams to Score62.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 62.2% for three or more goals and 83.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Benfica favoured at 70.4%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Benfica to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Maritimo 0 · 0 draws · Benfica 5 · 3.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Maritimo vs Benfica?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 62.2%. The match finished with 3 goals (0-3), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.