Primeira Liga
Maritimo vs 
Benfica Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Draw or Benfica (88.5%), landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Draw or Away at 88.5%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Benfica are favoured at 70.4%, so game state could swing this market. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Maritimo by 1 | 7.9% |
| Maritimo by 2 | 2.8% |
| Maritimo by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Benfica by 1 | 22.5% |
| Benfica by 2 | 20.9% |
| Benfica by 3+ | 27.0% |
| Draw | 18.1% |
Goal handicap
| Maritimo line | Maritimo | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 11.5% | 88.5% |
| +0.5 | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| +1.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| +2.5 | 73.0% | 27.0% |
Two of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is draw or Benfica on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
52.4%Both Teams to Score
62.2%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Benfica are favoured at 70.4%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Maritimo 0 · 0 draws · Benfica 5 · 3.6 goals/game.
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Maritimo vs Benfica?
Draw or Away was the highest-probability cover at 88.5%; it landed, final score 0-3.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,045 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.