Primeira Liga
Rio Ave vs 
Estrela Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 66.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 83.4% for over 2.5 to 31.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.2%. On the card count, Estrela are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 19.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.4% | 16.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 31.1% | 68.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
64.6%
38.0%
68.3%
42.1%
Card handicap
| Rio Ave line | Rio Ave | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.3% | 78.7% |
| -0.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| +0.5 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| +1.5 | 74.2% | 25.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 62.0% | 38.0% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Rio Ave cards per game8.0Rio Ave fouls per game2.4Estrela cards per game11.4Estrela fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rio Ave vs Estrela. The model leans toward Estrela for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
66.9%Over 3.5 cards19.9%Any red card64.6%Rio Ave over 1.5 cards68.3%Estrela over 1.5 cards73.9%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Rio Ave over 1.5 cards sits at 64.6% and Estrela at 68.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.9% (Rio Ave 15.1%, Estrela 5.7%). This season Rio Ave have averaged 1.4 cards a game and Estrela 2.4.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 66.9% for Rio Ave vs Estrela.
Will there be a red card in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
The model rates Estrela to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 19.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.