Primeira Liga
Maritimo vs 
Benfica Correct Score
Result
Final score 0-3. The model gave that exact scoreline 8.8%.
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 11.2% at 0-2, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Maritimo have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, Benfica 3.2 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 62.2% for over 2.5 and 83.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0-2 | 11.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 0-1 | 9.1% |
| 0-3 | 8.8% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% |
| 1-3 | 7.5% |
| 0-4 | 5.2% |
| 0-0 | 4.5% |
Score probability grid
| Maritimo \ Benfica | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% |
| 1 | 3% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 2% |
| 2 | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 | · | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | · |
| 4 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Maritimo goals, columns = Benfica. The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 11.2%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
52.4%Both Teams to Score62.2%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 62.2% for three or more goals and 83.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Benfica favoured at 70.4%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Maritimo 0 · 0 draws · Benfica 5 · 3.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Maritimo vs Benfica?
Maritimo vs Benfica finished 0-3. The model's most likely scoreline was 0-2 at 11.2%; it gave the actual 0-3 a 8.8% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Primeira Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.