AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
MainzMainzWDWLW
Full time3-4Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1014:30UK
LeverkusenLeverkusenDLWDW

Mainz 3-4 Leverkusen corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined52.6%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined47.4%

Result

Mainz3-4Leverkusen
7 cornersMainz 4, Leverkusen 3
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 52.6% and it missed (7 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners52.6%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Mainz.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 75.6% 24.3%
8.5 corners 64.6% 35.4%
9.5 corners 52.6% 47.4%
10.5 corners 40.8% 59.2%
11.5 corners 30.2% 69.8%
12.5 corners 21.3% 78.7%

Who wins the corner count

Mainz
55.8%
Level
10.5%
Leverkusen
33.8%

Team corners lines

Mainz

Over 3.5
75.9%
Over 4.5
61.2%
Over 5.5
46.0%

Leverkusen

Over 3.5
61.8%
Over 4.5
44.6%
Over 5.5
29.6%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Mainz's; Leverkusen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Mainz line Mainz Leverkusen
-3.5 25.3% 74.7%
-1.5 44.9% 55.1%
-0.5 55.8% 44.3%
+0.5 66.2% 33.8%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 52.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.6% for over 7.5 to 21.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. Head to head on corners, Mainz are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.8%, with a level count at 10.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

52.6%Over 9.5 corners
55.8%Most corners: Mainz
61.2%Mainz over 4.5 corners
44.6%Leverkusen over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Split by side, Mainz over 4.5 corners sits at 61.2% and Leverkusen at 44.6%.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.6% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderMainz are the pick to win the corner count at 55.8%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 52.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many corners in Mainz vs Leverkusen?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 52.6% for Mainz vs Leverkusen.
Which team will win the corner count in Mainz vs Leverkusen?
Before kickoff, the model rated Mainz to win the corner count at 55.8%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Corners

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Corner predictions today

Related

BundesligaMainz fixtures and statsLeverkusen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.