Mainz 3-4 Leverkusen correct score: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Mainz3-4Leverkusen
Final score 3-4. The model gave that exact scoreline 0.8%.
Model read
No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.
Conviction: Open
Most likely · 10.6%1-1
Correct score
Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.
Rows = Mainz goals, columns = Leverkusen goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%.
No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Most likely scorelines
- 1-110.6%
- 2-18.3%
- 1-28.3%
- 2-26.8%
- 0-15.7%
- 1-05.7%
- 0-25.1%
- 2-05.1%
Score probability grid
| H / A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Leverkusen
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
W
D
W
L
W
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
D
L
W
D
W
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 10.6% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Mainz have averaged 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, Leverkusen 2.2 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 63.7% for over 2.5 and 84.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
Looking at totals, the model sees 63.7% for three or more goals and 84.4% for at least two, painting a high-scoring picture. With Mainz favoured at 38.1%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Players to watch
Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.
MainzMainz (1)
Sheraldo Becker
LeverkusenLeverkusen (1)
Victor Boniface
FAQ
What was the score in Mainz vs Leverkusen?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Bundesliga, Correct Score
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
