Premier League
Liverpool vs 
Bournemouth Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 51.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.5% for over 2.5 to 17.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.8%. Head to head on cards, Bournemouth are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.9%, with a level count at 20.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.9% | 82.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
46.5%
20.9%
64.3%
37.5%
Card handicap
| Liverpool line | Liverpool | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.8% | 87.2% |
| -0.5 | 27.6% | 72.4% |
| +0.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| +1.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 34.4% | 65.6% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Liverpool vs Bournemouth. It tips Bournemouth for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
51.8%Over 3.5 cards21.0%Any red card46.5%Liverpool over 1.5 cards64.3%Bournemouth over 1.5 cards49.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Liverpool over 1.5 cards sits at 46.5% and Bournemouth at 64.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.0% (Liverpool 12.8%, Bournemouth 9.5%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Liverpool vs Bournemouth?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.8% for Liverpool vs Bournemouth.
Will there be a red card in Liverpool vs Bournemouth?
The model rates a red card for either side at 21.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Liverpool vs Bournemouth?
The model rates Bournemouth to pick up more cards at 51.9%, with a level count at 20.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.