On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Liverpool heavy favourites at 60% when Liverpool meet Bournemouth in the Premier League on 15 August 2025. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Liverpool at 76%. Caution noted. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 63% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 61%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 4 wins for Liverpool, 0 draws and 1 for Bournemouth at 2.8 goals per match. Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Liverpool against W2 D2 L2 for Bournemouth. Team news worth noting: Liverpool have Bradley ruled out, Endo a doubt, Bajcetic ruled out, Danns ruled out. For shots markets, Mohamed Salah is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners45.0%@ 2.22
Draw or Bournemouth40.4%@ 2.48
Over 11.5 corners35.8%@ 2.79
Medium risk
Both teams to score61.3%@ 1.63
Over 9.5 corners54.8%@ 1.82
Random finds
1-1 correct score10.0%@ 10.01
2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.24
2-0 correct score8.2%@ 12.24
Model vs market
Liverpool
59.6%-16.6%
Draw
21.5%+7.5%
Bournemouth
18.8%+9.0%
ModelMarket
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely84.0%Fair 1.19
Over 2.5Likely63.1%Fair 1.58
BTTS · YesLikely61.3%Fair 1.63
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.9%Fair 1.54
Over 9.5 cornersClose call54.8%Fair 1.82
Over 10.5 cornersClose call45.0%Fair 2.22
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely35.8%Fair 2.79
Most cornersLiverpool56.1%Bournemouth33.9%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely68.2%Fair 1.47
Over 24.5 shotsClose call57.1%Fair 1.75
Over 26.5 shotsClose call45.6%Fair 2.19
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely34.7%Fair 2.89
Totals line guide
0.5·1.584.0%2.563.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.563.1%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Mohamed SalahLiverpool · key player
To score42.3%2.36
1+ on target69.8%1.43
2+ shots80.5%1.24
Shots/90 3.19SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.58
Enes ÜnalBournemouth · key player
To score7.4%13.51
1+ on target22.6%4.42
2+ shots21.7%4.61
Shots/90 6.8SoT/90 2Goals/90 0.6
Luis DíazLiverpool · in form
To score30.3%3.30
1+ on target56.5%1.77
2+ shots58.7%1.70
Shots/90 2.63SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.48
Antoine SemenyoBournemouth · in form
To score31.0%3.23
1+ on target69.1%1.45
2+ shots81.1%1.23
Shots/90 3.14SoT/90 1.2Goals/90 0.38
Darwin NúñezLiverpool · in form
To score15.4%6.49
1+ on target35.1%2.85
2+ shots31.3%3.19
Shots/90 2.85SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.42
Eli Junior KroupiBournemouth · in form
To score32.8%3.05
1+ on target47.2%2.12
2+ shots46.7%2.14
Shots/90 2.74SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.69
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Liverpool win1.77
Draw4.53
Bournemouth win4.70
Both teams to score1.63
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.59
Over 3.5 goals2.44
Over 4.5 goals4.37
Liverpool most1.77
Bournemouth most4.70
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.45
Over 9.5 corners1.74
Over 10.5 corners2.18
Liverpool most1.78
Bournemouth most2.94
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.93
Over 4.5 cards3.08
Over 5.5 cards5.60
Liverpool most3.62
Bournemouth most1.93
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.40
Over 8.5 SoT1.66
Over 9.5 SoT2.05
Liverpool most1.65
Bournemouth most3.50
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.47
Over 24.5 shots1.75
Over 26.5 shots2.19
Over 28.5 shots2.89
Liverpool most1.58
Bournemouth most3.20
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.52
Over 22.5 fouls2.01
Over 24.5 fouls2.91
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
BradleyLiverpoolOut0% to play
EndoLiverpoolDoubtful50% to play
BajceticLiverpoolOut0% to play
DannsLiverpoolOut0% to play
EkitikéLiverpoolOut0% to play
LeoniLiverpoolOut0% to play
Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, Wataru Endo, Alexander Isak, Alisson BeckerLiverpoolOut
ChristieBournemouthSuspended0% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
Over 6.5
81.2%
Over 7.5
71.4%
Over 8.5
60.3%
Over 9.5
48.8%
Most: Liverpool
60.7%
Most: Bournemouth
28.5%
Liverpool Over 4.2
62.0%
Bournemouth Over 4.2
38.6%
Cards
Over 2.5
72.5%
Over 3.5
51.9%
Over 4.5
32.5%
Most: Liverpool
27.6%
Most: Bournemouth
51.9%
Liverpool Over 1.8
46.5%
Bournemouth Over 1.8
64.3%
Liverpool: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Mohamed Salah
3.19
1.26
0.58
69.8%
80.5%
42.3%
Luis Díaz
2.63
1.11
0.48
56.5%
58.7%
30.3%
Darwin Núñez
2.85
1.09
0.42
35.1%
31.3%
15.4%
Rio Ngumoha
2.8
1.05
0.35
27.1%
20.7%
10.0%
Diogo Jota
3.86
0.98
0.45
39.2%
58.3%
20.4%
Bournemouth: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Enes Ünal
6.8
2
0.6
22.6%
21.7%
7.4%
Antoine Semenyo
3.14
1.2
0.38
69.1%
81.1%
31.0%
Eli Junior Kroupi
2.74
1.11
0.69
47.2%
46.7%
32.8%
David Brooks
3.09
1.06
0.13
34.1%
34.4%
5.0%
Evanilson
2.52
0.94
0.28
55.4%
63.7%
21.4%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Liverpool clean sheet
29.7%
Bournemouth clean sheet
12.8%
Liverpool win to nil
25.3%
Bournemouth win to nil
8.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
56.6%
draw
22.1%
away
21.3%
double_chance
1X
78.7%
12
77.9%
X2
43.4%
dnb
home
72.7%
away
27.3%
btts
yes
61.3%
no
38.7%
clean_sheet
home
30.2%
away
12.8%
win_to_nil
home
25.9%
away
8.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
22.2%
home_by_2
17.3%
home_by_3plus
17.2%
away_by_1
12.7%
away_by_2
5.9%
away_by_3plus
2.7%
correct_score
0-0
4.4%
0-1
4.2%
0-2
2.8%
0-3
1.1%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
7.5%
1-1
10.0%
1-2
5.7%
1-3
2.3%
1-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
9.8%
2-2
5.9%
2-3
2.3%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
5.6%
3-1
6.7%
3-2
4.0%
3-3
1.6%
3-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
2.9%
4-1
3.4%
4-2
2.1%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
1.2%
5-1
1.4%
5-2
0.9%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
2.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.6%
under_0.5
4.4%
over_1.5
84.0%
under_1.5
16.0%
over_2.5
63.1%
under_2.5
36.9%
over_3.5
40.9%
under_3.5
59.1%
over_4.5
22.9%
under_4.5
77.1%
over_5.5
11.2%
under_5.5
88.8%
odd_even
odd
49.0%
even
51.0%
team_home
over_0.5
87.2%
under_0.5
12.8%
over_1.5
60.8%
under_1.5
39.2%
over_2.5
33.8%
under_2.5
66.2%
team_away
over_0.5
69.8%
under_0.5
30.2%
over_1.5
33.7%
under_1.5
66.3%
over_2.5
12.0%
under_2.5
88.0%
most
home
56.6%
draw
22.1%
away
21.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
17.2%
away_+2.5
82.9%
home_-1.5
34.4%
away_+1.5
65.6%
home_-0.5
56.6%
away_+0.5
43.4%
home_+0.5
78.7%
away_-0.5
21.3%
home_+1.5
91.5%
away_-1.5
8.6%
home_+2.5
97.3%
away_-2.5
2.7%
total_exact
exact_0
4.4%
exact_1
11.6%
exact_2
20.9%
exact_3
22.2%
exact_4
18.0%
exact_5
11.7%
exact_6
6.4%
exact_7plus
4.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
47.8%
draw
36.4%
away
15.9%
total
over_0.5
74.9%
under_0.5
25.1%
over_1.5
40.2%
under_1.5
59.8%
over_2.5
16.2%
under_2.5
83.8%
btts
yes
21.2%
no
78.8%
total_exact
exact_0
25.1%
exact_1
34.7%
exact_2
24.0%
exact_3
11.0%
exact_4plus
5.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
43.2%
draw
32.6%
away
24.3%
total
over_0.5
82.9%
under_0.5
17.2%
over_1.5
52.6%
under_1.5
47.4%
over_2.5
26.0%
under_2.5
74.1%
btts
yes
33.1%
no
66.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
39.7%
H/D
5.9%
H/A
2.2%
D/H
15.7%
D/D
11.9%
D/A
8.8%
A/H
2.4%
A/D
3.6%
A/A
9.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
78.9%
under_7.5
21.1%
over_8.5
68.7%
under_8.5
31.3%
over_9.5
57.4%
under_9.5
42.6%
over_10.5
45.8%
under_10.5
54.2%
over_11.5
35.0%
under_11.5
65.0%
over_12.5
25.6%
under_12.5
74.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.7%
under_3.5
22.3%
over_4.5
64.0%
under_4.5
36.0%
over_5.5
49.6%
under_5.5
50.4%
team_away
over_3.5
63.6%
under_3.5
36.4%
over_4.5
47.2%
under_4.5
52.8%
over_5.5
32.4%
under_5.5
67.6%
most
home
56.3%
draw
9.7%
away
34.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
27.5%
away_+3.5
72.5%
home_-1.5
46.2%
away_+1.5
53.8%
home_-0.5
56.3%
away_+0.5
43.7%
home_+0.5
66.0%
away_-0.5
34.0%
home_+1.5
74.8%
away_-1.5
25.3%
home_+3.5
87.9%
away_-3.5
12.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
68.2%
under_22.5
31.8%
over_24.5
57.1%
under_24.5
43.0%
over_26.5
45.6%
under_26.5
54.4%
over_28.5
34.7%
under_28.5
65.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
76.5%
under_10.5
23.5%
over_12.5
62.4%
under_12.5
37.6%
over_14.5
47.4%
under_14.5
52.6%
team_away
over_10.5
56.0%
under_10.5
44.0%
over_12.5
39.1%
under_12.5
60.9%
over_14.5
25.1%
under_14.5
74.9%
most
home
63.4%
draw
5.3%
away
31.3%
handicap
home_-4.5
40.4%
away_+4.5
59.6%
home_-2.5
52.0%
away_+2.5
48.0%
home_-0.5
63.4%
away_+0.5
36.6%
home_+0.5
68.7%
away_-0.5
31.3%
home_+2.5
78.2%
away_-2.5
21.8%
home_+4.5
85.8%
away_-4.5
14.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
81.2%
under_6.5
18.8%
over_7.5
71.4%
under_7.5
28.6%
over_8.5
60.3%
under_8.5
39.7%
over_9.5
48.8%
under_9.5
51.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
76.5%
under_3.5
23.5%
over_4.5
62.0%
under_4.5
38.0%
over_5.5
46.9%
under_5.5
53.1%
team_away
over_3.5
56.2%
under_3.5
43.9%
over_4.5
38.6%
under_4.5
61.4%
over_5.5
24.3%
under_5.5
75.6%
most
home
60.7%
draw
10.8%
away
28.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
37.6%
away_+2.5
62.4%
home_-0.5
60.7%
away_+0.5
39.4%
home_+0.5
71.5%
away_-0.5
28.5%
home_+2.5
87.6%
away_-2.5
12.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
72.5%
under_2.5
27.5%
over_3.5
51.8%
under_3.5
48.2%
over_4.5
32.5%
under_4.5
67.5%
over_5.5
17.9%
under_5.5
82.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
46.5%
under_1.5
53.5%
over_2.5
20.9%
under_2.5
79.1%
team_away
over_1.5
64.3%
under_1.5
35.7%
over_2.5
37.5%
under_2.5
62.5%
most
home
27.6%
draw
20.5%
away
51.9%
handicap
home_-1.5
12.8%
away_+1.5
87.2%
home_-0.5
27.6%
away_+0.5
72.4%
home_+0.5
48.1%
away_-0.5
51.9%
home_+1.5
68.7%
away_-1.5
31.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
65.6%
under_20.5
34.4%
over_22.5
49.8%
under_22.5
50.2%
over_24.5
34.4%
under_24.5
65.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
62.4%
under_9.5
37.6%
over_11.5
39.4%
under_11.5
60.7%
over_13.5
20.6%
under_13.5
79.4%
team_away
over_9.5
73.7%
under_9.5
26.3%
over_11.5
52.3%
under_11.5
47.7%
over_13.5
31.4%
under_13.5
68.6%
most
home
37.0%
draw
7.9%
away
55.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
17.4%
away_+3.5
82.6%
home_-0.5
37.0%
away_+0.5
63.0%
home_+2.5
60.9%
away_-2.5
39.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
21.0%
no
79.0%
home
yes
12.8%
no
87.2%
away
yes
9.5%
no
90.5%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Liverpool
Bournemouth