Liverpool vs Bournemouth prediction & probabilities (2025-08-15)

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Liverpool vs Bournemouth: model prediction

Premier League
Liverpool
Fri, 15 Aug 2025vs
Bournemouth
Model’s top convictions

84%

Over 1.5 goals

81%

Liverpool or draw

65%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LiverpoolWin probability
59.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals84.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.19
Liverpool or draw81.2%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Over 8.5 corners64.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.54

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Liverpool heavy favourites at 60% when Liverpool meet Bournemouth in the Premier League on 15 August 2025. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Liverpool at 76%. Caution noted. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 63% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 61%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 4 wins for Liverpool, 0 draws and 1 for Bournemouth at 2.8 goals per match. Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Liverpool against W2 D2 L2 for Bournemouth. Team news worth noting: Liverpool have Bradley ruled out, Endo a doubt, Bajcetic ruled out, Danns ruled out. For shots markets, Mohamed Salah is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.0%@ 2.22
Draw or Bournemouth40.4%@ 2.48
Over 11.5 corners35.8%@ 2.79
Medium risk

Both teams to score61.3%@ 1.63
Over 9.5 corners54.8%@ 1.82
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.0%@ 10.01
2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.24
2-0 correct score8.2%@ 12.24

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Liverpool

59.6%-16.6%

Draw

21.5%+7.5%

Bournemouth

18.8%+9.0%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.0%

High probability

Over 2.563.1%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes61.3%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.564.9%

Strong chance

Over 9.554.8%

Good chance

Over 10.545.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersLiverpool 56.1% · Bournemouth 33.9%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.0%2.563.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.563.1%

Discipline: NO_BET, too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Mohamed SalahLiverpool · key player
To score42.3%

@ 2.36

1+ on target69.8%

@ 1.43

2+ shots80.5%

@ 1.24

Shots/90 3.19SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.58
Enes ÜnalBournemouth · key player
To score7.4%

@ 13.51

1+ on target22.6%

@ 4.42

2+ shots21.7%

@ 4.61

Shots/90 6.8SoT/90 2Goals/90 0.6
Luis DíazLiverpool · in form
To score30.3%

@ 3.30

1+ on target56.5%

@ 1.77

2+ shots58.7%

@ 1.70

Shots/90 2.63SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.48
Antoine SemenyoBournemouth · in form
To score31.0%

@ 3.23

1+ on target69.1%

@ 1.45

2+ shots81.1%

@ 1.23

Shots/90 3.14SoT/90 1.2Goals/90 0.38
Darwin NúñezLiverpool · in form
To score15.4%

@ 6.49

1+ on target35.1%

@ 2.85

2+ shots31.3%

@ 3.19

Shots/90 2.85SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.42
Eli Junior KroupiBournemouth · in form
To score32.8%

@ 3.05

1+ on target47.2%

@ 2.12

2+ shots46.7%

@ 2.14

Shots/90 2.74SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.69

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Liverpool win1.77
Draw4.53
Bournemouth win4.70
Both teams to score1.63

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.59
Over 3.5 goals2.44
Over 4.5 goals4.37
Liverpool most1.77
Bournemouth most4.70

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.45
Over 9.5 corners1.74
Over 10.5 corners2.18
Liverpool most1.78
Bournemouth most2.94

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.93
Over 4.5 cards3.08
Over 5.5 cards5.60
Liverpool most3.62
Bournemouth most1.93

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.40
Over 8.5 SoT1.66
Over 9.5 SoT2.05
Liverpool most1.65
Bournemouth most3.50

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.47
Over 24.5 shots1.75
Over 26.5 shots2.19
Over 28.5 shots2.89
Liverpool most1.58
Bournemouth most3.20

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.52
Over 22.5 fouls2.01
Over 24.5 fouls2.91

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • BradleyLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • EndoLiverpoolDoubtful50% to play
  • BajceticLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • DannsLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • EkitikéLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • LeoniLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, Wataru Endo, Alexander Isak, Alisson BeckerLiverpoolOut
  • ChristieBournemouthSuspended0% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 81.2% Over 7.5 71.4% Over 8.5 60.3% Over 9.5 48.8%
Most: Liverpool 60.7% Most: Bournemouth 28.5%
Liverpool Over 4.2 62.0% Bournemouth Over 4.2 38.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.5% Over 3.5 51.9% Over 4.5 32.5%
Most: Liverpool 27.6% Most: Bournemouth 51.9%
Liverpool Over 1.8 46.5% Bournemouth Over 1.8 64.3%

Liverpool: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Mohamed Salah 3.19 1.26 0.58 69.8% 80.5% 42.3%
Luis Díaz 2.63 1.11 0.48 56.5% 58.7% 30.3%
Darwin Núñez 2.85 1.09 0.42 35.1% 31.3% 15.4%
Rio Ngumoha 2.8 1.05 0.35 27.1% 20.7% 10.0%
Diogo Jota 3.86 0.98 0.45 39.2% 58.3% 20.4%

Bournemouth: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Enes Ünal 6.8 2 0.6 22.6% 21.7% 7.4%
Antoine Semenyo 3.14 1.2 0.38 69.1% 81.1% 31.0%
Eli Junior Kroupi 2.74 1.11 0.69 47.2% 46.7% 32.8%
David Brooks 3.09 1.06 0.13 34.1% 34.4% 5.0%
Evanilson 2.52 0.94 0.28 55.4% 63.7% 21.4%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 56.6% draw 22.1% away 21.3%
double_chance
1X 78.7% 12 77.9% X2 43.4%
dnb
home 72.7% away 27.3%
btts
yes 61.3% no 38.7%
clean_sheet
home 30.2% away 12.8%
win_to_nil
home 25.9% away 8.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.2% home_by_2 17.3% home_by_3plus 17.2%
away_by_1 12.7% away_by_2 5.9% away_by_3plus 2.7%
correct_score
0-0 4.4% 0-1 4.2% 0-2 2.8%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 7.5% 1-1 10.0% 1-2 5.7%
1-3 2.3% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.2% 2-1 9.8% 2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 5.6% 3-1 6.7% 3-2 4.0%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.9% 4-1 3.4% 4-2 2.1%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 1.2% 5-1 1.4% 5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 2.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.6% under_0.5 4.4% over_1.5 84.0%
under_1.5 16.0% over_2.5 63.1% under_2.5 36.9%
over_3.5 40.9% under_3.5 59.1% over_4.5 22.9%
under_4.5 77.1% over_5.5 11.2% under_5.5 88.8%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 87.2% under_0.5 12.8% over_1.5 60.8%
under_1.5 39.2% over_2.5 33.8% under_2.5 66.2%
team_away
over_0.5 69.8% under_0.5 30.2% over_1.5 33.7%
under_1.5 66.3% over_2.5 12.0% under_2.5 88.0%
most
home 56.6% draw 22.1% away 21.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 17.2% away_+2.5 82.9% home_-1.5 34.4%
away_+1.5 65.6% home_-0.5 56.6% away_+0.5 43.4%
home_+0.5 78.7% away_-0.5 21.3% home_+1.5 91.5%
away_-1.5 8.6% home_+2.5 97.3% away_-2.5 2.7%
total_exact
exact_0 4.4% exact_1 11.6% exact_2 20.9%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 18.0% exact_5 11.7%
exact_6 6.4% exact_7plus 4.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 47.8% draw 36.4% away 15.9%
total
over_0.5 74.9% under_0.5 25.1% over_1.5 40.2%
under_1.5 59.8% over_2.5 16.2% under_2.5 83.8%
btts
yes 21.2% no 78.8%
total_exact
exact_0 25.1% exact_1 34.7% exact_2 24.0%
exact_3 11.0% exact_4plus 5.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 43.2% draw 32.6% away 24.3%
total
over_0.5 82.9% under_0.5 17.2% over_1.5 52.6%
under_1.5 47.4% over_2.5 26.0% under_2.5 74.1%
btts
yes 33.1% no 66.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 39.7% H/D 5.9% H/A 2.2%
D/H 15.7% D/D 11.9% D/A 8.8%
A/H 2.4% A/D 3.6% A/A 9.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.9% under_7.5 21.1% over_8.5 68.7%
under_8.5 31.3% over_9.5 57.4% under_9.5 42.6%
over_10.5 45.8% under_10.5 54.2% over_11.5 35.0%
under_11.5 65.0% over_12.5 25.6% under_12.5 74.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.7% under_3.5 22.3% over_4.5 64.0%
under_4.5 36.0% over_5.5 49.6% under_5.5 50.4%
team_away
over_3.5 63.6% under_3.5 36.4% over_4.5 47.2%
under_4.5 52.8% over_5.5 32.4% under_5.5 67.6%
most
home 56.3% draw 9.7% away 34.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.5% away_+3.5 72.5% home_-1.5 46.2%
away_+1.5 53.8% home_-0.5 56.3% away_+0.5 43.7%
home_+0.5 66.0% away_-0.5 34.0% home_+1.5 74.8%
away_-1.5 25.3% home_+3.5 87.9% away_-3.5 12.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 68.2% under_22.5 31.8% over_24.5 57.1%
under_24.5 43.0% over_26.5 45.6% under_26.5 54.4%
over_28.5 34.7% under_28.5 65.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.5% under_10.5 23.5% over_12.5 62.4%
under_12.5 37.6% over_14.5 47.4% under_14.5 52.6%
team_away
over_10.5 56.0% under_10.5 44.0% over_12.5 39.1%
under_12.5 60.9% over_14.5 25.1% under_14.5 74.9%
most
home 63.4% draw 5.3% away 31.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.4% away_+4.5 59.6% home_-2.5 52.0%
away_+2.5 48.0% home_-0.5 63.4% away_+0.5 36.6%
home_+0.5 68.7% away_-0.5 31.3% home_+2.5 78.2%
away_-2.5 21.8% home_+4.5 85.8% away_-4.5 14.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 81.2% under_6.5 18.8% over_7.5 71.4%
under_7.5 28.6% over_8.5 60.3% under_8.5 39.7%
over_9.5 48.8% under_9.5 51.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.5% under_3.5 23.5% over_4.5 62.0%
under_4.5 38.0% over_5.5 46.9% under_5.5 53.1%
team_away
over_3.5 56.2% under_3.5 43.9% over_4.5 38.6%
under_4.5 61.4% over_5.5 24.3% under_5.5 75.6%
most
home 60.7% draw 10.8% away 28.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 37.6% away_+2.5 62.4% home_-0.5 60.7%
away_+0.5 39.4% home_+0.5 71.5% away_-0.5 28.5%
home_+2.5 87.6% away_-2.5 12.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.5% under_2.5 27.5% over_3.5 51.8%
under_3.5 48.2% over_4.5 32.5% under_4.5 67.5%
over_5.5 17.9% under_5.5 82.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 46.5% under_1.5 53.5% over_2.5 20.9%
under_2.5 79.1%
team_away
over_1.5 64.3% under_1.5 35.7% over_2.5 37.5%
under_2.5 62.5%
most
home 27.6% draw 20.5% away 51.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 12.8% away_+1.5 87.2% home_-0.5 27.6%
away_+0.5 72.4% home_+0.5 48.1% away_-0.5 51.9%
home_+1.5 68.7% away_-1.5 31.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 65.6% under_20.5 34.4% over_22.5 49.8%
under_22.5 50.2% over_24.5 34.4% under_24.5 65.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 62.4% under_9.5 37.6% over_11.5 39.4%
under_11.5 60.7% over_13.5 20.6% under_13.5 79.4%
team_away
over_9.5 73.7% under_9.5 26.3% over_11.5 52.3%
under_11.5 47.7% over_13.5 31.4% under_13.5 68.6%
most
home 37.0% draw 7.9% away 55.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.4% away_+3.5 82.6% home_-0.5 37.0%
away_+0.5 63.0% home_+2.5 60.9% away_-2.5 39.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 21.0% no 79.0%
home
yes 12.8% no 87.2%
away
yes 9.5% no 90.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Liverpool predictions · Bournemouth predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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