Premier League
Liverpool vs 
Bournemouth Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Draw at 81.2%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Liverpool are favoured at 59.6%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 1 | 22.2% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 17.3% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 17.2% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 12.7% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 5.9% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 2.7% |
| Draw | 21.5% |
Goal handicap
| Liverpool line | Liverpool | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 17.2% | 82.9% |
| -1.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| -0.5 | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| +0.5 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
Two of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Liverpool or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
61.3%Both Teams to Score
63.1%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, Liverpool are favoured at 59.6%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Liverpool vs Bournemouth?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for Liverpool vs Bournemouth at 81.2%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Liverpool vs Bournemouth?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Liverpool at 72.7% and Bournemouth at 27.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,045 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.