La Liga
Levante vs 
Sevilla Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 65.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 81.9% for over 2.5 to 30.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.3%. On the card count, Sevilla are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.4%, with a level count at 18.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 81.9% | 18.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 30.9% | 69.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
56.7%
30.8%
71.8%
47.6%
Card handicap
| Levante line | Levante | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.7% | 84.4% |
| -0.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| +0.5 | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| +1.5 | 65.8% | 34.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 80.4% | 19.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 55.8% | 44.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Levante cards per game10.0Levante fouls per game3.1Sevilla cards per game14.4Sevilla fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Levante vs Sevilla. Slightly more cards are projected for Sevilla for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
65.4%Over 3.5 cards26.8%Any red card56.7%Levante over 1.5 cards71.8%Sevilla over 1.5 cards68.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Levante over 1.5 cards sits at 56.7% and Sevilla at 71.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 26.8% (Levante 10.4%, Sevilla 18.3%). This season Levante have averaged 1.0 cards a game and Sevilla 3.1.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Levante vs Sevilla?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 65.4% for Levante vs Sevilla.
Will there be a red card in Levante vs Sevilla?
The model rates a red card for either side at 26.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Levante vs Sevilla?
The model rates Sevilla to pick up more cards at 52.4%, with a level count at 18.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,143 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
