La Liga
Levante vs 
Sevilla Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 51.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Levante have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded, Sevilla 1.0 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 51.6% for over 2.5 and 76.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 goals a game. Levante have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Sevilla in 2 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.0% | 7.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 76.4% | 23.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 14.4% | 85.7% |
| 5.5 goals | 6.0% | 94.0% |
Team goal lines
79.2%
46.5%
20.9%
68.9%
32.7%
11.5%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.3% | 87.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 21.3% | 78.7% |
This season (2026/27)
1.3Levante goals scored per game2.0Levante goals conceded per game66.7%Levante Over 2.5 rate0.5Levante 1st-half goals per game1.4Sevilla goals scored per game1.3Sevilla goals conceded per game57.1%Sevilla Over 2.5 rate0.3Sevilla 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
55.1%Both Teams to Score51.6%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 51.6% for three or more goals and 76.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Levante favoured at 47.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Levante to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Levante 2 · 0 draws · Sevilla 3 · 3.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Levante vs Sevilla?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 51.6% for Levante vs Sevilla.
Will there be a first-half goal in Levante vs Sevilla?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 70.2%.
How often have Levante gone over 2.5 recently?
Levante have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Sevilla in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,322 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
