La Liga
Levante vs 
Ath Bilbao Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 51.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 63.7% for over 22.5 to 28.0% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. Head to head on shots, Levante are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.1%, with a level count at 6.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.0% | 72.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.8%
56.4%
39.8%
55.6%
37.4%
22.6%
Shot handicap
| Levante line | Levante | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| -2.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| -0.5 | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| +0.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 41.1% | 58.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
5.2 / 6.4
7.8 / 6.2
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
This season (2026/27)
11.6Levante shots per game14.0Levante shots faced per game5.2Levante first-half shots6.4Levante second-half shots14.0Ath Bilbao shots per game11.0Ath Bilbao shots faced per game7.8Ath Bilbao first-half shots6.2Ath Bilbao second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Levante.
In-depth analysis
51.2%Over 24.5 shots56.4%Levante over 12.5 shots37.4%Ath Bilbao over 12.5 shots65.8%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Levante over 12.5 shots sits at 56.4% and Ath Bilbao at 37.4%. This season Levante have averaged 11.6 shots a game and Ath Bilbao 14.0. Levante take 5.2 shots before half-time and 6.4 after, Ath Bilbao 7.8 and 6.2.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Levante vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 51.2% for Levante vs Ath Bilbao.
Which team will have more shots in Levante vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates Levante to take more shots at 60.1%.
Do Levante shoot more in the first or second half?
Levante average 5.2 shots before half-time and 6.4 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,899 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
