La Liga
Levante vs 
Ath Bilbao Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Away at 73.5%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Levante are favoured at 41.9%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Levante by 1 | 20.8% |
| Levante by 2 | 12.5% |
| Levante by 3+ | 7.9% |
| Ath Bilbao by 1 | 18.0% |
| Ath Bilbao by 2 | 9.4% |
| Ath Bilbao by 3+ | 4.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% |
Goal handicap
| Levante line | Levante | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.4% | 79.6% |
| -0.5 | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| +0.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| +1.5 | 85.7% | 14.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Levante goals scored per game1.8Levante goals conceded per game1.4Ath Bilbao goals scored per game1.2Ath Bilbao goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Levante or Ath Bilbao on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
56.8%Both Teams to Score52.7%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Levante are favoured at 41.9%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Levante 0 · 2 draws · Ath Bilbao 3 · 2.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Levante vs Ath Bilbao?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Levante vs Ath Bilbao at 73.5%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Levante vs Ath Bilbao?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Levante at 56.1% and Ath Bilbao at 43.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 40,098 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on Double Chance
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| double_chance v1.0 | Double chance 1X |
More La Liga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
