La Liga
Levante vs 
Ath Bilbao Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 52.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Levante have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded, Ath Bilbao 1.4 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 52.7% for over 2.5 and 77.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. Levante have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Ath Bilbao in 2 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.2% | 6.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 15.0% | 85.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 6.4% | 93.6% |
Team goal lines
77.5%
43.9%
18.9%
72.6%
37.1%
14.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 9.1% | 90.9% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 81.7% | 18.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 24.2% | 75.8% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Levante goals scored per game1.8Levante goals conceded per game60.0%Levante Over 2.5 rate0.4Levante 1st-half goals per game1.4Ath Bilbao goals scored per game1.2Ath Bilbao goals conceded per game40.0%Ath Bilbao Over 2.5 rate0.4Ath Bilbao 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
56.8%Both Teams to Score52.7%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 52.7% for three or more goals and 77.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Levante favoured at 41.9%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Levante to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Levante 0 · 2 draws · Ath Bilbao 3 · 2.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Levante vs Ath Bilbao?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 52.7% for Levante vs Ath Bilbao.
Will there be a first-half goal in Levante vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 65.3%.
How often have Levante gone over 2.5 recently?
Levante have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Ath Bilbao in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,267 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
