La Liga
Levante vs 
Ath Bilbao Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 59.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 77.5% for over 2.5 to 24.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 59.0%. Between the two sides, Ath Bilbao are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.2%, with a level count at 19.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 77.5% | 22.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 24.5% | 75.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.6%
29.4%
65.2%
39.4%
Card handicap
| Levante line | Levante | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| -0.5 | 33.3% | 66.8% |
| +0.5 | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| +1.5 | 71.4% | 28.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 44.6% | 55.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Levante cards per game10.0Levante fouls per game2.2Ath Bilbao cards per game10.6Ath Bilbao fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Levante vs Ath Bilbao. The model leans toward Ath Bilbao for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
59.0%Over 3.5 cards20.8%Any red card55.6%Levante over 1.5 cards65.2%Ath Bilbao over 1.5 cards58.6%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Levante over 1.5 cards sits at 55.6% and Ath Bilbao at 65.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.8% (Levante 6.8%, Ath Bilbao 15.0%). This season Levante have averaged 1.0 cards a game and Ath Bilbao 2.2.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Levante vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 59.0% for Levante vs Ath Bilbao.
Will there be a red card in Levante vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Levante vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates Ath Bilbao to pick up more cards at 47.2%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,114 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
