AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Segunda División
LeganesLeganesWLLLL
Full time1-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:15UK
MallorcaMallorcaWLDWD

Leganes 1-1 Mallorca cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined74%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined26%

Result

Leganes1-1Mallorca
9 yellow cardsLeganes 5, Mallorca 4
0 red cardsLeganes 0, Mallorca 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 74.0% and it landed (9 in the match). We called No at 88.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards74.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Olatz Rivera Olmedo

Recorded match referee.

Olatz Rivera Olmedo in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 6 6
Goals 2.33 2.33
Yellow cards 4.83 4.83
Red cards 0.17 0.17
Corners 6.8 6.8
Fouls 25.5 25.5
Both teams scored 83% 83%
Over 2.5 goals 50% 50%
Home wins 17% 17%
Latest 6 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Leganes vs Mallorca 1-1 2 Yes 9 0 10 32
10 Oct 2026 Ceuta vs Sabadell 1-2 3 Yes 3 1 5 30
26 Sep 2026 Tenerife vs Cadiz 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 3 25
13 Sep 2026 Sp Gijon vs Eldense 0-1 1 No 5 0 8 23
31 Aug 2026 Celta B vs Castellon 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 6 21
16 Aug 2026 Las Palmas vs Albacete 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 9 22

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Leganes vs Mallorca. Slightly more cards are projected for Mallorca for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 87.8% 12.2%
3.5 cards 74.0% 26.0%
4.5 cards 56.6% 43.4%
5.5 cards 39.0% 61.0%

Who picks up more cards

Leganes
35.7%
Level
18.1%
Mallorca
46.1%

Team cards lines

Leganes

Over 1.5
68.4%
Over 2.5
42.2%

Mallorca

Over 1.5
74.6%
Over 2.5
49.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Leganes's; Mallorca gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Leganes line Leganes Mallorca
-1.5 20.5% 79.5%
-0.5 35.7% 64.3%
+0.5 53.9% 46.1%
+1.5 71.1% 28.9%

Red card

Any red card11.4%
Leganes red card4.0%
Mallorca red card7.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 86.8% 13.2%
22.5 fouls 77.4% 22.6%
24.5 fouls 65.6% 34.4%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 74.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 87.8% for over 2.5 to 39.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.6%. Between the two sides, Mallorca are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.1%, with a level count at 18.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Leganes over 1.5 cards sits at 68.4% and Mallorca at 74.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.4% (Leganes 4.0%, Mallorca 7.6%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

74.0%Over 3.5 cards
11.4%Any red card
46.1%Most cards: Mallorca
68.4%Leganes over 1.5 cards
74.6%Mallorca over 1.5 cards
77.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 74.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianMallorca are the pick to collect more cards at 46.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 56.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Leganes vs Mallorca?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 74.0% for Leganes vs Mallorca.
Will there be a red card in Leganes vs Mallorca?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Leganes vs Mallorca?
Before kickoff, the model rated Mallorca to pick up more cards at 46.1%, with a level count at 18.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónLeganes fixtures and statsMallorca fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.