AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 11 Oct 2026

Segunda División
LeganesLeganesWWDLW
Full time0-2Mon, 28 Sep 202628/919:30UK
CastellonCastellonDWWWW

Leganes 0-2 Castellon cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined74.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined25.9%

Result

Leganes0-2Castellon
7 yellow cardsLeganes 6, Castellon 1
1 red cardsLeganes 0, Castellon 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 74.1% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 86.5% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards74.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Leganes vs Castellon. It tips Castellon for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 87.9% 12.1%
3.5 cards 74.1% 26.0%
4.5 cards 56.6% 43.4%
5.5 cards 39.1% 60.9%

Who picks up more cards

Leganes
39.1%
Level
18.3%
Castellon
42.7%

Team cards lines

Leganes

Over 1.5
70.6%
Over 2.5
44.8%

Castellon

Over 1.5
72.7%
Over 2.5
47.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Leganes's; Castellon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Leganes line Leganes Castellon
-1.5 23.1% 76.9%
-0.5 39.1% 60.9%
+0.5 57.3% 42.7%
+1.5 74.0% 26.0%

Red card

Any red card13.5%
Leganes red card6.6%
Castellon red card7.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 84.1% 15.9%
22.5 fouls 73.9% 26.2%
24.5 fouls 61.4% 38.6%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 74.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 87.9% for over 2.5 to 39.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.6%. On the card count, Castellon are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.7%, with a level count at 18.3%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Leganes over 1.5 cards sits at 70.6% and Castellon at 72.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.5% (Leganes 6.6%, Castellon 7.3%). This season Leganes have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Castellon 2.0.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

74.1%Over 3.5 cards
13.5%Any red card
42.7%Most cards: Castellon
70.6%Leganes over 1.5 cards
72.7%Castellon over 1.5 cards
73.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 74.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.5%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianCastellon are the pick to collect more cards at 42.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 56.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
LeganesLeganes

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CastellonCastellon
Statistic
Leganes
Castellon
cards per game
1.8
2.0

fouls per game
13.8
11.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Leganes vs Castellon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 74.1% for Leganes vs Castellon.
Will there be a red card in Leganes vs Castellon?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Leganes vs Castellon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Castellon to pick up more cards at 42.7%, with a level count at 18.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónLeganes fixtures and statsCastellon fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.