AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Serie A
LecceLecceWLLWL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1117:00UK15°C · Cloudy
GenoaGenoaDLWLW

Lecce vs Genoa corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined59%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined41%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 9.5 corners41.0%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Lecce.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 63.3% 36.7%
8.5 corners 51.9% 48.1%
9.5 corners 41.0% 59.0%
10.5 corners 31.1% 68.9%
11.5 corners 22.8% 77.2%
12.5 corners 16.1% 83.9%

Who wins the corner count

Lecce
53.9%
Level
10.4%
Genoa
35.7%

Team corners lines

Lecce

Over 3.5
66.1%
Over 4.5
51.2%
Over 5.5
37.6%

Genoa

Over 3.5
53.2%
Over 4.5
37.5%
Over 5.5
24.8%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Lecce's; Genoa gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Lecce line Lecce Genoa
-1.5 43.3% 56.7%
-0.5 53.9% 46.1%
+0.5 64.3% 35.7%
+1.5 73.7% 26.3%
LecceLecce

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Lecce at home and Genoa away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

GenoaGenoa
Statistic
Lecce
Genoa
Corners won per game at this venue
5.3
3.3

Corners conceded per game at this venue
3.3
3.7

First-half corners won per game
1.6
2.0

Second-half corners won per game
2.9
2.1

Matches with more corners than the opponent
62.5%
25.0%

Matches with corner data
8
8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 41.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 63.3% for over 7.5 to 16.1% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.9%. On the corner count, Lecce are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.9%, with a level count at 10.4%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Lecce over 4.5 corners sits at 51.2% and Genoa at 37.5%. This season Lecce have averaged 4.5 corners won a game and Genoa 4.1.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

41.0%Over 9.5 corners
53.9%Most corners: Lecce
51.2%Lecce over 4.5 corners
37.5%Genoa over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 41.0% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderLecce are the pick to win the corner count at 53.9%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 8.5 corners: over sits at 51.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 8.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
LecceLecce

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GenoaGenoa
Statistic
Lecce
Genoa
corners won per game
4.5
4.1

corners conceded per game
3.5
5.4

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Lecce vs Genoa?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 41.0% for Lecce vs Genoa.
Which team will win the corner count in Lecce vs Genoa?
The model rates Lecce to win the corner count at 53.9%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How many corners do Lecce and Genoa average this season?
Lecce have won 4.5 corners a game this season and Genoa 4.1.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Serie A, Corners

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Corner predictions today

Related

Serie ALecce fixtures and statsGenoa fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.