AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Serie A
LecceLecceWLLWL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1117:00UK15°C · Cloudy
GenoaGenoaDLWLW

Lecce vs Genoa cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.6%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.4%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards48.4%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lecce vs Genoa. The model leans toward Lecce for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 68.9% 31.1%
3.5 cards 48.4% 51.6%
4.5 cards 30.1% 69.9%
5.5 cards 16.8% 83.2%

Who picks up more cards

Lecce
40.8%
Level
21.3%
Genoa
37.9%

Team cards lines

Lecce

Over 1.5
54.1%
Over 2.5
28.5%

Genoa

Over 1.5
51.9%
Over 2.5
26.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Lecce's; Genoa gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Lecce line Lecce Genoa
-1.5 22.4% 77.6%
-0.5 40.8% 59.2%
+0.5 62.1% 37.9%
+1.5 79.8% 20.2%

Red card

Any red card13.3%
Lecce red card9.0%
Genoa red card4.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 74.9% 25.1%
22.5 fouls 63.0% 37.0%
24.5 fouls 50.2% 49.8%
LecceLecce

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Lecce at home and Genoa away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

GenoaGenoa
Statistic
Lecce
Genoa
Yellow cards per game
1.8
2.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
2.0

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
100.0%

Matches with card data
3
5
Red cards this season
·
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 48.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 68.9% for over 2.5 to 16.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.4%. Head to head on cards, Lecce are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 21.3%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Lecce over 1.5 cards sits at 54.1% and Genoa at 51.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.3% (Lecce 9.0%, Genoa 4.7%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

48.4%Over 3.5 cards
13.3%Any red card
40.8%Most cards: Lecce
54.1%Lecce over 1.5 cards
51.9%Genoa over 1.5 cards
63.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 48.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianLecce are the pick to collect more cards at 40.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 48.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
LecceLecce

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GenoaGenoa
Statistic
Lecce
Genoa
cards per game
·
2.0

fouls per game
12.6
10.0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Lecce vs Genoa?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.4% for Lecce vs Genoa.
Will there be a red card in Lecce vs Genoa?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lecce vs Genoa?
The model rates Lecce to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie ALecce fixtures and statsGenoa fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.