AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Super League Greece
IraklisIraklisWDDWL
Full time2-3Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1017:00UK
KifisiaKifisiaLDWWL

Iraklis 2-3 Kifisia cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined79.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined20.8%

Result

Iraklis2-3Kifisia
2 yellow cardsIraklis 1, Kifisia 1
0 red cardsIraklis 0, Kifisia 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 79.2% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 77.7% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards79.2%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Alexandros Tsakalidis

Recorded match referee.

Alexandros Tsakalidis in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 23 4
Goals 2.30 Not available
Yellow cards 4.83 Not available
Red cards 0.04 Not available
Corners 10.1 Not available
Fouls 28.6 Not available
Both teams scored 44% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 26% Not available
Home wins 26% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Iraklis vs Kifisia 2-3 5 Yes 3 0 3 26
20 Sep 2026 OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis 2-2 4 Yes 5 0 7 23
5 Sep 2026 AEK vs Aris 5-0 5 No 2 0 4 33
22 Aug 2026 Olympiakos vs Atromitos 1-0 1 No 9 1 18 28
16 May 2026 Asteras Tripolis vs Kifisia 0-0 0 No 6 0 13 25
12 May 2026 Panetolikos vs Larisa 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 12 24
3 May 2026 OFI Crete vs Aris 0-2 2 No 6 0 10 29
22 Apr 2026 Panserraikos vs Atromitos 0-4 4 No 6 0 13 22
5 Apr 2026 Volos NFC vs OFI Crete 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 8 32
14 Mar 2026 Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 11 30

Alexandros Tsakalidis referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Iraklis vs Kifisia. Slightly more cards are projected for Kifisia for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 90.8% 9.2%
3.5 cards 79.2% 20.8%
4.5 cards 63.4% 36.6%
5.5 cards 46.2% 53.8%

Who picks up more cards

Iraklis
30.1%
Level
16.9%
Kifisia
53.0%

Team cards lines

Iraklis

Over 1.5
68.6%
Over 2.5
42.4%

Kifisia

Over 1.5
81.1%
Over 2.5
59.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Iraklis's; Kifisia gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Iraklis line Iraklis Kifisia
-1.5 16.8% 83.2%
-0.5 30.1% 69.9%
+0.5 47.0% 53.0%
+1.5 64.2% 35.8%

Red card

Any red card22.3%
Iraklis red card14.1%
Kifisia red card9.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 94.8% 5.2%
22.5 fouls 89.8% 10.2%
24.5 fouls 82.4% 17.6%
IraklisIraklis

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Iraklis at home and Kifisia away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

KifisiaKifisia
Statistic
Iraklis
Kifisia
Yellow cards per game
2.6
3.8

Matches with card data
3
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 79.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 90.8% for over 2.5 to 46.2% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.2%. Between the two sides, Kifisia are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.0%, with a level count at 16.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Iraklis over 1.5 cards sits at 68.6% and Kifisia at 81.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.3% (Iraklis 14.1%, Kifisia 9.5%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

79.2%Over 3.5 cards
22.3%Any red card
53.0%Most cards: Kifisia
68.6%Iraklis over 1.5 cards
81.1%Kifisia over 1.5 cards
89.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 79.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 22.3%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianKifisia are the pick to collect more cards at 53.0%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 5.5 cards: over sits at 46.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
IraklisIraklis

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

KifisiaKifisia
Statistic
Iraklis
Kifisia
fouls per game
17.6
19.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Iraklis vs Kifisia?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 79.2% for Iraklis vs Kifisia.
Will there be a red card in Iraklis vs Kifisia?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 22.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Iraklis vs Kifisia?
Before kickoff, the model rated Kifisia to pick up more cards at 53.0%, with a level count at 16.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Super League Greece, Cards

Kifisia vs Olympiacos cards predictionLevadeiakos vs Aris cards predictionPanetolikos vs OFI Crete cards predictionPAOK vs Asteras Tripolis cards predictionPanathinaikos vs AEK cards predictionAtromitos vs Volos NFC cards prediction

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Related

Super League GreeceIraklis fixtures and statsKifisia fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.