Bundesliga
Hamburg vs 
Mainz Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 60.5% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 77.4% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 60.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 79.0% for over 2.5 to 24.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.0%. Between the two sides, Mainz are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 20.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 24.7% | 75.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
59.7%
32.7%
64.3%
37.4%
Card handicap
| Hamburg line | Hamburg | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.9% | 80.1% |
| -0.5 | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| +0.5 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| +1.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 34.1% | 65.9% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hamburg vs Mainz. Slightly more cards are projected for Mainz for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
60.5%Over 3.5 cards22.6%Any red card59.7%Hamburg over 1.5 cards64.3%Mainz over 1.5 cards45.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Hamburg over 1.5 cards sits at 59.7% and Mainz at 64.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.6% (Hamburg 9.7%, Mainz 14.2%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Hamburg vs Mainz?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 60.5% for Hamburg vs Mainz.
Will there be a red card in Hamburg vs Mainz?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 22.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Hamburg vs Mainz?
Before kickoff, the model rated Mainz to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 20.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.