Bundesliga
Hamburg vs 
Mainz Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 57.5% and it landed (25 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 69.6% and it landed (9 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 57.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 69.2% for over 22.5 to 34.0% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.4%. On the shot count, Hamburg are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.1%, with a level count at 5.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 34.0% | 66.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
77.5%
62.6%
46.6%
57.5%
39.6%
24.7%
Shot handicap
| Hamburg line | Hamburg | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 38.9% | 61.1% |
| -2.5 | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| -0.5 | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| +0.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 79.9% | 20.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 46.5% | 53.6% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Hamburg.
In-depth analysis
57.5%Over 24.5 shots62.6%Hamburg over 12.5 shots39.6%Mainz over 12.5 shots69.6%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Hamburg over 12.5 shots sits at 62.6% and Mainz at 39.6%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Hamburg vs Mainz?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 57.5% for Hamburg vs Mainz.
Which team will have more shots in Hamburg vs Mainz?
Before kickoff, the model rated Hamburg to take more shots at 63.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.