Bundesliga
Hamburg vs 
Mainz Corners
Result
We called Over 9.5 at 50.1% and it missed (9 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 48.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.6% for over 7.5 to 19.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.1%. Head to head on corners, Hamburg are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.0%, with a level count at 10.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 73.6% | 26.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 62.2% | 37.9% |
| 9.5 corners | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 10.5 corners | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 19.6% | 80.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
74.1%
59.1%
43.9%
60.5%
43.4%
28.7%
Corner handicap
| Hamburg line | Hamburg | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| -0.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| +0.5 | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| +1.5 | 74.9% | 25.1% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Hamburg.
In-depth analysis
By team, Hamburg over 4.5 corners sits at 59.1% and Mainz at 43.4%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Hamburg vs Mainz?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 50.1% for Hamburg vs Mainz.
Which team will win the corner count in Hamburg vs Mainz?
Before kickoff, the model rated Hamburg to win the corner count at 55.0%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.