Bundesliga
Freiburg vs 
M'gladbach Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 50.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 71.3% for over 2.5 to 16.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.4%. Head to head on cards, M'gladbach are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 21.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.3% | 28.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.9% | 83.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
52.6%
26.0%
57.4%
30.4%
Card handicap
| Freiburg line | Freiburg | M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.4% | 81.6% |
| -0.5 | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| +0.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| +1.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.9% | 70.1% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Freiburg vs M'gladbach. Slightly more cards are projected for M'gladbach for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
50.4%Over 3.5 cards12.0%Any red card52.6%Freiburg over 1.5 cards57.4%M'gladbach over 1.5 cards40.8%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Freiburg over 1.5 cards sits at 52.6% and M'gladbach at 57.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.0% (Freiburg 5.3%, M'gladbach 7.1%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Freiburg vs M'gladbach?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.4% for Freiburg vs M'gladbach.
Will there be a red card in Freiburg vs M'gladbach?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Freiburg vs M'gladbach?
The model rates M'gladbach to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.