Bundesliga
Hoffenheim vs 
Stuttgart Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.0% for over 2.5 to 18.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.5%. On the card count, Hoffenheim are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 21.3%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.1% | 66.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.3% | 81.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
58.5%
31.4%
54.5%
27.7%
Card handicap
| Hoffenheim line | Hoffenheim | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23.2% | 76.8% |
| -0.5 | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| +0.5 | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| +1.5 | 80.9% | 19.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 32.1% | 67.9% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart. It tips Hoffenheim for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
52.5%Over 3.5 cards17.0%Any red card58.5%Hoffenheim over 1.5 cards54.5%Stuttgart over 1.5 cards43.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Hoffenheim over 1.5 cards sits at 58.5% and Stuttgart at 54.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.0% (Hoffenheim 9.3%, Stuttgart 8.5%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.5% for Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart.
Will there be a red card in Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart?
The model rates Hoffenheim to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.