Bundesliga
Dortmund vs 
Paderborn Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 50.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.0% for over 2.5 to 16.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.0%. On the card count, Paderborn are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 21.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.6% | 83.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
54.4%
27.5%
55.2%
28.3%
Card handicap
| Dortmund line | Dortmund | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.3% | 79.7% |
| -0.5 | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| +0.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| +1.5 | 78.9% | 21.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.1% | 70.9% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Dortmund vs Paderborn. The model leans toward Paderborn for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
50.0%Over 3.5 cards12.1%Any red card54.4%Dortmund over 1.5 cards55.2%Paderborn over 1.5 cards39.9%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Dortmund over 1.5 cards sits at 54.4% and Paderborn at 55.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.1% (Dortmund 6.9%, Paderborn 5.5%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Dortmund vs Paderborn?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.0% for Dortmund vs Paderborn.
Will there be a red card in Dortmund vs Paderborn?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Dortmund vs Paderborn?
The model rates Paderborn to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.