Bundesliga
Hamburg vs 
Mainz Correct Score
Result
Final score 0-5. The model gave that exact scoreline 0.3%.
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 12.3% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Hamburg have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, Mainz 1.6 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 53.6% for over 2.5 and 77.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 0-1 | 7.9% |
| 1-0 | 7.8% |
| 0-0 | 6.7% |
| 0-2 | 6.0% |
| 2-0 | 5.8% |
Score probability grid
| Hamburg \ Mainz | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 8% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 6% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Hamburg goals, columns = Mainz. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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5+
In-depth analysis
57.6%Both Teams to Score53.6%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 53.6% for three or more goals and 77.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Mainz favoured at 38.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Hamburg 1 · 3 draws · Mainz 1 · 2.2 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Hamburg vs Mainz?
Hamburg vs Mainz finished 0-5. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 12.3%; it gave the actual 0-5 a 0.3% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Bundesliga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.