Hamburg vs Mainz: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

Bundesliga

Hamburg

LWWDL

Full time0-5Sun, 6 Sep 202614:30UK19°C · Cloudy

Mainz

LWLWD

Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Draw or Mainz

62%

Hamburg or draw

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Hamburg 0-5 Mainz

✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Mainz at 38.3%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 53.6% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.7% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 68.5% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 57.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 70.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.1% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 50.1% and it missed (9 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 60.5% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 57.5% and it landed (25 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 69.6% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 77.4% and it landed.

Match data	Hamburg	Mainz
Goals, 1st half	0	2
Goals, 2nd half	0	3
Shots	8	17
Shots, 1st half	1	10
Shots, 2nd half	7	7
Shots on target	1	8
Corners	4	5
Yellow cards	1	3
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	14	19
Expected goals (xG)	0.26	3.28

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

MainzWin probability

38.3%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.29

Draw or Mainz64.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Hamburg or draw61.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

"Hamburg or Mainz? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Little between these two in the data. Mainz at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 6 September 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 54% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. The run in: Hamburg arrive W2 D1 L3, Mainz W2 D2 L2. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Hamburg, 3 draws and 1 for Mainz, averaging 2.2 goals a game. Terem Igobor Moffi drives the home shot volume, 2.1 on target per 90. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners38.7%@ 2.58

Mainz win38.3%@ 2.61

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners59.6%@ 1.68

Both teams to score57.6%@ 1.74

Over 2.5 goals53.6%@ 1.87

Random finds

1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.13

1-2 correct score8.3%@ 12.03

2-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.24

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Hamburg

35.6%

Draw

26.1%

Mainz

38.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.553.6%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.6%

Good chance

Over 9.548.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.6%

Low chance

Most cornersHamburg54.9%Mainz34.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.569.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.557.5%

Good chance

Over 26.545.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.534.0%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.7%2.553.6%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.7%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

HamburgLWWDL

MainzLWLWD

Last 5 meetings: Hamburg 1 · 3 draws · Mainz 1 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-02-20Mainz 1-1 Hamburg

2025-10-05Hamburg 4-0 Mainz

2018-03-03Hamburg 0-0 Mainz

2017-10-14Mainz 3-2 Hamburg

2017-05-07Hamburg 0-0 Mainz

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Hamburg

Mainz

League position#14 of 18#10 of 18

Record W-D-L0-0-10-1-0

Current streakL1D1

Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Terem Igobor MoffiHamburg · key player

To score17.1%

@ 5.85

1+ on target55.7%

@ 1.80

2+ shots42.1%

@ 2.38

Shots/90 3.76SoT/90 2.13Goals/90 0.49

Sheraldo BeckerMainz · key player

To score11.3%

@ 8.85

1+ on target46.2%

@ 2.16

2+ shots34.2%

@ 2.92

Shots/90 2.43SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.24

Yussuf PoulsenHamburg · in form

To score7.9%

@ 12.66

1+ on target22.1%

@ 4.52

2+ shots11.7%

@ 8.55

Shots/90 3.11SoT/90 1.33Goals/90 0.44

Phillip TietzMainz · in form

To score19.0%

@ 5.26

1+ on target50.9%

@ 1.96

2+ shots50.5%

@ 1.98

Shots/90 2.74SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.34

Rayan PhilippeHamburg · in form

To score15.3%

@ 6.54

1+ on target43.3%

@ 2.31

2+ shots39.7%

@ 2.52

Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 1.16Goals/90 0.34

Nadiem AmiriMainz · in form

To score26.7%

@ 3.75

1+ on target54.4%

@ 1.84

2+ shots59.9%

@ 1.67

Shots/90 2.21SoT/90 0.86Goals/90 0.34

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Hamburg win2.76

Draw3.80

Mainz win2.67

Both teams to score1.74

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07

Over 1.5 goals1.29

Over 2.5 goals1.87

Over 3.5 goals3.17

Hamburg most2.76

Mainz most2.67

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36

Over 8.5 corners1.61

Over 9.5 corners2.00

Over 10.5 corners2.60

Hamburg most1.82

Mainz most2.90

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.27

Over 3.5 cards1.65

Over 4.5 cards2.44

Over 5.5 cards4.05

Hamburg most2.73

Mainz most2.31

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.25

Over 7.5 SoT1.44

Over 8.5 SoT1.72

Over 9.5 SoT2.15

Hamburg most1.77

Mainz most3.13

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.44

Over 24.5 shots1.74

Over 26.5 shots2.20

Over 28.5 shots2.94

Hamburg most1.59

Mainz most3.20

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.74

Over 22.5 fouls2.21

Over 24.5 fouls2.93

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	79.9%	Over 7.5	69.6%	Over 8.5	58.1%	Over 9.5	46.4%
Most: Hamburg	56.6%	Most: Mainz	32.0%
Hamburg Over 4.2	58.0%	Mainz Over 4.2	40.1%

Cards

Over 2.5	79.0%	Over 3.5	60.5%	Over 4.5	41.0%
Most: Hamburg	36.6%	Most: Mainz	43.3%
Hamburg Over 1.8	59.7%	Mainz Over 1.8	64.3%

Hamburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Terem Igobor Moffi	3.76	2.13	0.49	55.7%	42.1%	17.1%
Yussuf Poulsen	3.11	1.33	0.44	22.1%	11.7%	7.9%
Rayan Philippe	2.8	1.16	0.34	43.3%	39.7%	15.3%
Albert Grønbæk	2	0.9	0.19	38.2%	29.0%	9.7%
Patson Daka	2.15	0.48	0.12	15.4%	17.4%	4.1%

Mainz: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Sheraldo Becker	2.43	1.24	0.24	46.2%	34.2%	11.3%
Phillip Tietz	2.74	1.15	0.34	50.9%	50.5%	19.0%
Nadiem Amiri	2.21	0.86	0.34	54.4%	59.9%	26.7%
Ransford Königsdörffer	2.43	0.81	0.18	47.7%	57.8%	13.4%
Jae-Sung Lee	1.32	0.47	0.21	34.3%	33.0%	17.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Hamburg clean sheet	24.2%
Mainz clean sheet	24.7%
Hamburg win to nil	17.6%
Mainz win to nil	18.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	36.2%	draw	26.3%	away	37.5%

double_chance

1X	62.5%	12	73.7%	X2	63.8%

dnb

home	49.1%	away	50.9%

btts

yes	57.6%	no	42.4%

clean_sheet

home	24.3%	away	24.8%

win_to_nil

home	17.7%	away	18.1%

winning_margin

home_by_1	19.2%	home_by_2	10.8%	home_by_3plus	6.2%
away_by_1	19.5%	away_by_2	11.2%	away_by_3plus	6.8%

correct_score

0-0	6.7%	0-1	7.9%	0-2	6.0%
0-3	2.9%	0-4	1.1%	0-5	0.3%
1-0	7.8%	1-1	12.3%	1-2	8.3%
1-3	4.0%	1-4	1.5%	1-5	0.4%
2-0	5.8%	2-1	8.2%	2-2	5.8%
2-3	2.8%	2-4	1.0%	2-5	0.3%
3-0	2.7%	3-1	3.8%	3-2	2.7%
3-3	1.3%	3-4	0.5%	3-5	0.2%
4-0	1.0%	4-1	1.3%	4-2	1.0%
4-3	0.5%	4-4	0.2%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.4%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.7%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	12.3%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	93.3%	under_0.5	6.7%	over_1.5	77.7%
under_1.5	22.3%	over_2.5	53.6%	under_2.5	46.4%
over_3.5	31.5%	under_3.5	68.5%	over_4.5	15.9%
under_4.5	84.1%	over_5.5	7.0%	under_5.5	93.0%

odd_even

odd	48.6%	even	51.4%

team_home

over_0.5	75.2%	under_0.5	24.8%	over_1.5	40.7%
under_1.5	59.3%	over_2.5	16.7%	under_2.5	83.3%

team_away

over_0.5	75.7%	under_0.5	24.3%	over_1.5	41.7%
under_1.5	58.3%	over_2.5	17.6%	under_2.5	82.4%

most

home	36.2%	draw	26.3%	away	37.5%

handicap

home_-2.5	6.2%	away_+2.5	93.8%	home_-1.5	17.0%
away_+1.5	83.0%	home_-0.5	36.2%	away_+0.5	63.8%
home_+0.5	62.5%	away_-0.5	37.5%	home_+1.5	82.0%
away_-1.5	18.0%	home_+2.5	93.2%	away_-2.5	6.8%

total_exact

exact_0	6.7%	exact_1	15.7%	exact_2	24.1%
exact_3	22.0%	exact_4	15.6%	exact_5	8.9%
exact_6	4.3%	exact_7plus	2.7%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	25.0%	draw	41.1%	away	33.9%

total

over_0.5	70.9%	under_0.5	29.1%	over_1.5	35.0%
under_1.5	65.0%	over_2.5	12.8%	under_2.5	87.2%

btts

yes	21.0%	no	79.0%

total_exact

exact_0	29.1%	exact_1	35.9%	exact_2	22.2%
exact_3	9.1%	exact_4plus	3.7%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	34.9%	draw	39.6%	away	25.5%

total

over_0.5	73.1%	under_0.5	26.9%	over_1.5	37.7%
under_1.5	62.3%	over_2.5	14.6%	under_2.5	85.4%

btts

yes	22.8%	no	77.2%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	19.8%	H/D	3.9%	H/A	1.3%
D/H	14.3%	D/D	16.3%	D/A	10.5%
A/H	2.8%	A/D	6.5%	A/A	24.7%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	73.6%	under_7.5	26.4%	over_8.5	62.2%
under_8.5	37.9%	over_9.5	50.1%	under_9.5	49.9%
over_10.5	38.4%	under_10.5	61.6%	over_11.5	28.1%
under_11.5	71.9%	over_12.5	19.6%	under_12.5	80.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	74.1%	under_3.5	25.9%	over_4.5	59.1%
under_4.5	40.9%	over_5.5	43.9%	under_5.5	56.1%

team_away

over_3.5	60.5%	under_3.5	39.5%	over_4.5	43.4%
under_4.5	56.6%	over_5.5	28.7%	under_5.5	71.3%

most

home	55.0%	draw	10.5%	away	34.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	24.7%	away_+3.5	75.3%	home_-1.5	44.2%
away_+1.5	55.8%	home_-0.5	55.0%	away_+0.5	45.0%
home_+0.5	65.5%	away_-0.5	34.5%	home_+1.5	74.9%
away_-1.5	25.1%	home_+3.5	88.8%	away_-3.5	11.2%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	69.2%	under_22.5	30.8%	over_24.5	57.5%
under_24.5	42.5%	over_26.5	45.4%	under_26.5	54.6%
over_28.5	34.0%	under_28.5	66.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	77.5%	under_10.5	22.5%	over_12.5	62.6%
under_12.5	37.4%	over_14.5	46.6%	under_14.5	53.4%

team_away

over_10.5	57.5%	under_10.5	42.5%	over_12.5	39.6%
under_12.5	60.4%	over_14.5	24.7%	under_14.5	75.3%

most

home	63.1%	draw	5.6%	away	31.3%

handicap

home_-4.5	38.9%	away_+4.5	61.1%	home_-2.5	51.1%
away_+2.5	48.9%	home_-0.5	63.1%	away_+0.5	36.9%
home_+0.5	68.7%	away_-0.5	31.3%	home_+2.5	78.7%
away_-2.5	21.3%	home_+4.5	86.5%	away_-4.5	13.5%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	79.9%	under_6.5	20.1%	over_7.5	69.6%
under_7.5	30.4%	over_8.5	58.1%	under_8.5	41.9%
over_9.5	46.5%	under_9.5	53.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	73.5%	under_3.5	26.5%	over_4.5	58.0%
under_4.5	42.0%	over_5.5	42.5%	under_5.5	57.5%

team_away

over_3.5	57.8%	under_3.5	42.2%	over_4.5	40.2%
under_4.5	59.9%	over_5.5	25.5%	under_5.5	74.5%

most

home	56.6%	draw	11.4%	away	32.0%

handicap

home_-2.5	33.3%	away_+2.5	66.7%	home_-0.5	56.6%
away_+0.5	43.4%	home_+0.5	68.0%	away_-0.5	32.0%
home_+2.5	85.7%	away_-2.5	14.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	79.0%	under_2.5	21.0%	over_3.5	60.5%
under_3.5	39.5%	over_4.5	41.0%	under_4.5	59.0%
over_5.5	24.7%	under_5.5	75.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	59.7%	under_1.5	40.3%	over_2.5	32.7%
under_2.5	67.3%

team_away

over_1.5	64.3%	under_1.5	35.7%	over_2.5	37.4%
under_2.5	62.6%

most

home	36.6%	draw	20.1%	away	43.3%

handicap

home_-1.5	19.9%	away_+1.5	80.1%	home_-0.5	36.6%
away_+0.5	63.4%	home_+0.5	56.7%	away_-0.5	43.3%
home_+1.5	75.0%	away_-1.5	25.0%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	57.4%	under_20.5	42.6%	over_22.5	45.3%
under_22.5	54.7%	over_24.5	34.1%	under_24.5	65.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	55.9%	under_9.5	44.1%	over_11.5	38.8%
under_11.5	61.3%	over_13.5	24.7%	under_13.5	75.3%

team_away

over_9.5	63.2%	under_9.5	36.8%	over_11.5	46.5%
under_11.5	53.5%	over_13.5	31.5%	under_13.5	68.5%

most

home	41.5%	draw	6.1%	away	52.3%

handicap

home_-3.5	24.9%	away_+3.5	75.1%	home_-0.5	41.5%
away_+0.5	58.5%	home_+2.5	59.9%	away_-2.5	40.1%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	22.6%	no	77.4%

home

yes	9.7%	no	90.3%

away

yes	14.2%	no	85.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Hamburg predictions · Mainz predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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