AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
GillinghamGillinghamWWLDW
Full time1-1Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1020:00UK
Port ValePort ValeLLWLW

Gillingham 1-1 Port Vale cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.2%

Result

Gillingham1-1Port Vale
3 yellow cardsGillingham 2, Port Vale 1
0 red cardsGillingham 0, Port Vale 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 53.8% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 90.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Jamie O'Connor

Recorded match referee.

Jamie O'Connor in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 19 5
Goals 1.84 1.40
Yellow cards 3.05 3.80
Red cards 0.21 0.20
Corners 10.4 10.0
Fouls 20.5 21.6
Both teams scored 21% 20%
Over 2.5 goals 26% 0%
Home wins 42% 40%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Gillingham vs Port Vale 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 13 23
10 Oct 2026 Swindon vs Crewe 0-1 1 No 3 0 8 17
3 Oct 2026 Accrington vs Cheltenham 2-0 2 No 4 1 10 26
12 Sep 2026 Walsall vs Rochdale 0-0 0 No 4 0 11 16
15 Aug 2026 Tranmere vs Shrewsbury 2-0 2 No 5 0 8 26
21 Mar 2026 Shrewsbury vs Crewe 0-4 4 No 3 0 11 22
14 Mar 2026 Swindon vs Milton Keynes Dons 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 11 18
7 Mar 2026 Accrington vs Cambridge 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 12 11
17 Jan 2026 Grimsby vs Barnet 1-0 1 No 2 1 12 21
26 Dec 2025 Salford vs Harrogate 1-0 1 No 2 0 10 21

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Gillingham vs Port Vale. It tips Port Vale for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.0% 26.0%
3.5 cards 53.8% 46.2%
4.5 cards 34.4% 65.6%
5.5 cards 19.3% 80.7%

Who picks up more cards

Gillingham
36.9%
Level
21.1%
Port Vale
42.0%

Team cards lines

Gillingham

Over 1.5
55.6%
Over 2.5
28.7%

Port Vale

Over 1.5
59.3%
Over 2.5
32.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Gillingham's; Port Vale gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Gillingham line Gillingham Port Vale
-1.5 19.4% 80.6%
-0.5 36.9% 63.1%
+0.5 58.0% 42.0%
+1.5 76.7% 23.3%

Red card

Any red card9.8%
Gillingham red card4.5%
Port Vale red card5.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 74.0% 26.0%
22.5 fouls 59.9% 40.1%
24.5 fouls 44.7% 55.3%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.0% for over 2.5 to 19.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. On the card count, Port Vale are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.0%, with a level count at 21.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Gillingham over 1.5 cards sits at 55.6% and Port Vale at 59.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.8% (Gillingham 4.5%, Port Vale 5.6%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

53.8%Over 3.5 cards
9.8%Any red card
42.0%Most cards: Port Vale
55.6%Gillingham over 1.5 cards
59.3%Port Vale over 1.5 cards
59.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 9.8%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianPort Vale are the pick to collect more cards at 42.0%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 53.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Gillingham vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.8% for Gillingham vs Port Vale.
Will there be a red card in Gillingham vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Gillingham vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated Port Vale to pick up more cards at 42.0%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoGillingham fixtures and statsPort Vale fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.