AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
GillinghamGillinghamWWLDW
Full time1-1Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1020:00UK
Port ValePort ValeLLWLW

Gillingham 1-1 Port Vale corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined51%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined49%

Result

Gillingham1-1Port Vale
13 cornersGillingham 9, Port Vale 4
Under 9.5

We called Under 9.5 at 51.0% and it missed (13 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners49.0%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Gillingham.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 72.4% 27.6%
8.5 corners 61.0% 39.0%
9.5 corners 49.0% 51.0%
10.5 corners 37.7% 62.4%
11.5 corners 27.6% 72.4%
12.5 corners 19.4% 80.7%

Who wins the corner count

Gillingham
55.4%
Level
10.6%
Port Vale
34.0%

Team corners lines

Gillingham

Over 3.5
73.7%
Over 4.5
58.6%
Over 5.5
43.5%

Port Vale

Over 3.5
59.6%
Over 4.5
42.4%
Over 5.5
27.9%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Gillingham's; Port Vale gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Gillingham line Gillingham Port Vale
-3.5 24.6% 75.4%
-1.5 44.4% 55.6%
-0.5 55.4% 44.6%
+0.5 66.0% 34.0%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 49.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.4% for over 7.5 to 19.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.0%. On the corner count, Gillingham are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.4%, with a level count at 10.6%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

49.0%Over 9.5 corners
55.4%Most corners: Gillingham
58.6%Gillingham over 4.5 corners
42.4%Port Vale over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

For the team lines, Gillingham over 4.5 corners sits at 58.6% and Port Vale at 42.4%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.0% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderGillingham are the pick to win the corner count at 55.4%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 49.0%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many corners in Gillingham vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 49.0% for Gillingham vs Port Vale.
Which team will win the corner count in Gillingham vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated Gillingham to win the corner count at 55.4%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More League Two, Corners

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Corner predictions today

Related

League TwoGillingham fixtures and statsPort Vale fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.