AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
GillinghamGillinghamDWWWL
Full time0-0Sat, 3 Oct 20263/1015:00UK
Newport CountyNewport CountyLLDDW

Gillingham 0-0 Newport County cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.6%

Result

Gillingham0-0Newport County
6 yellow cardsGillingham 4, Newport County 2
0 red cardsGillingham 0, Newport County 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 54.4% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 86.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.4%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Carl Brook

Recorded match referee.

Carl Brook in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 79 1
Goals 2.63 Not available
Yellow cards 3.97 Not available
Red cards 0.18 Not available
Corners 9.9 Not available
Fouls 24.5 Not available
Both teams scored 43% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 48% Not available
Home wins 52% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
3 Oct 2026 Gillingham vs Newport County 0-0 0 No 6 0 5 29
25 Apr 2026 Grimsby vs Swindon 4-0 4 No 2 0 14 19
18 Apr 2026 Tranmere vs Bristol Rvs 1-2 3 Yes 7 0 7 25
28 Mar 2026 Colchester vs Walsall 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 17 18
7 Feb 2026 Cheltenham vs Milton Keynes Dons 2-3 5 Yes 5 0 15 16
27 Jan 2026 Barnet vs Tranmere 1-0 1 No 5 0 12 21
17 Jan 2026 Gillingham vs Newport County 3-2 5 Yes 5 0 9 23
29 Nov 2025 Newport County vs Barrow 2-2 4 Yes 1 0 4 18
4 Oct 2025 Cambridge vs Crawley Town 3-1 4 Yes 7 0 12 27
27 Sep 2025 Grimsby vs Cheltenham 7-1 8 Yes 2 2 9 24

Carl Brook referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Gillingham vs Newport County. Slightly more cards are projected for Newport County for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.5% 25.6%
3.5 cards 54.4% 45.6%
4.5 cards 34.9% 65.1%
5.5 cards 19.7% 80.3%

Who picks up more cards

Gillingham
38.3%
Level
21.0%
Newport County
40.6%

Team cards lines

Gillingham

Over 1.5
57.0%
Over 2.5
30.0%

Newport County

Over 1.5
58.6%
Over 2.5
31.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Gillingham's; Newport County gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Gillingham line Gillingham Newport County
-1.5 20.5% 79.5%
-0.5 38.3% 61.7%
+0.5 59.4% 40.6%
+1.5 77.7% 22.3%

Red card

Any red card13.1%
Gillingham red card6.6%
Newport County red card7.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 70.1% 29.9%
22.5 fouls 55.2% 44.8%
24.5 fouls 40.0% 60.0%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 54.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.5% for over 2.5 to 19.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. On the card count, Newport County are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.6%, with a level count at 21.0%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Gillingham over 1.5 cards sits at 57.0% and Newport County at 58.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.1% (Gillingham 6.6%, Newport County 7.0%). This season Gillingham have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Newport County 1.8.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

54.4%Over 3.5 cards
13.1%Any red card
40.6%Most cards: Newport County
57.0%Gillingham over 1.5 cards
58.6%Newport County over 1.5 cards
55.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianNewport County are the pick to collect more cards at 40.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 54.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
GillinghamGillingham

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Newport CountyNewport County
Statistic
Gillingham
Newport County
cards per game
2.4
1.8

fouls per game
11.8
12.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Gillingham vs Newport County?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.4% for Gillingham vs Newport County.
Will there be a red card in Gillingham vs Newport County?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Gillingham vs Newport County?
Before kickoff, the model rated Newport County to pick up more cards at 40.6%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoGillingham fixtures and statsNewport County fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.