AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
GillinghamGillinghamDWWWL
Full time0-0Sat, 3 Oct 20263/1015:00UK
Newport CountyNewport CountyLLDDW

Gillingham 0-0 Newport County corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined52.4%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined47.6%

Result

Gillingham0-0Newport County
5 cornersGillingham 3, Newport County 2
Under 9.5

We called Under 9.5 at 52.4% and it landed (5 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners47.6%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Gillingham.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 71.2% 28.8%
8.5 corners 59.6% 40.4%
9.5 corners 47.6% 52.4%
10.5 corners 36.3% 63.7%
11.5 corners 26.4% 73.6%
12.5 corners 18.3% 81.7%

Who wins the corner count

Gillingham
60.7%
Level
10.3%
Newport County
29.0%

Team corners lines

Gillingham

Over 3.5
75.8%
Over 4.5
61.3%
Over 5.5
46.3%

Newport County

Over 3.5
54.5%
Over 4.5
37.2%
Over 5.5
23.3%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Gillingham's; Newport County gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Gillingham line Gillingham Newport County
-3.5 28.8% 71.2%
-1.5 49.6% 50.4%
-0.5 60.7% 39.3%
+0.5 71.0% 29.0%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 47.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.2% for over 7.5 to 18.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.6%. On the corner count, Gillingham are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.7%, with a level count at 10.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Gillingham over 4.5 corners sits at 61.3% and Newport County at 37.2%. This season Gillingham have averaged 3.6 corners won a game and Newport County 4.4.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

47.6%Over 9.5 corners
60.7%Most corners: Gillingham
61.3%Gillingham over 4.5 corners
37.2%Newport County over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 47.6% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderGillingham are the pick to win the corner count at 60.7%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 47.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
GillinghamGillingham

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Newport CountyNewport County
Statistic
Gillingham
Newport County
corners won per game
3.6
4.4

corners conceded per game
5.9
5.6

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Gillingham vs Newport County?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 47.6% for Gillingham vs Newport County.
Which team will win the corner count in Gillingham vs Newport County?
Before kickoff, the model rated Gillingham to win the corner count at 60.7%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How many corners do Gillingham and Newport County average this season?
Gillingham have won 3.6 corners a game this season and Newport County 4.4.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

League TwoGillingham fixtures and statsNewport County fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.