AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Süper Lig
GaziantepGaziantepWDLLL
Full time1-3Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1014:00UK
ErzurumsporErzurumsporWLWDW

Gaziantep 1-3 Erzurumspor cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined66.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined33.4%

Result

Gaziantep1-3Erzurumspor
2 yellow cardsGaziantep 2, Erzurumspor 0
Over 3.5

We called Over 3.5 at 66.6% and it missed (2 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards66.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor. The model leans toward Erzurumspor for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 83.2% 16.8%
3.5 cards 66.6% 33.4%
4.5 cards 47.8% 52.2%
5.5 cards 30.6% 69.4%

Who picks up more cards

Gaziantep
40.0%
Level
19.3%
Erzurumspor
40.7%

Team cards lines

Gaziantep

Over 1.5
66.1%
Over 2.5
39.5%

Erzurumspor

Over 1.5
66.6%
Over 2.5
40.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Gaziantep's; Erzurumspor gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Gaziantep line Gaziantep Erzurumspor
-1.5 23.1% 76.9%
-0.5 40.0% 60.0%
+0.5 59.3% 40.7%
+1.5 76.4% 23.6%

Red card

Any red card8.9%
Gaziantep red card4.5%
Erzurumspor red card4.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 87.1% 12.9%
22.5 fouls 77.1% 22.9%
24.5 fouls 64.3% 35.7%
GaziantepGaziantep

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Gaziantep at home and Erzurumspor away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ErzurumsporErzurumspor
Statistic
Gaziantep
Erzurumspor
Yellow cards per game
2.2
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.8
0.8

Matches with card data
2
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 66.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 83.2% for over 2.5 to 30.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.8%. Head to head on cards, Erzurumspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 19.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Gaziantep over 1.5 cards sits at 66.1% and Erzurumspor at 66.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.9% (Gaziantep 4.5%, Erzurumspor 4.6%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

66.6%Over 3.5 cards
8.9%Any red card
40.7%Most cards: Erzurumspor
66.1%Gaziantep over 1.5 cards
66.6%Erzurumspor over 1.5 cards
77.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 66.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianErzurumspor are the pick to collect more cards at 40.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 47.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
GaziantepGaziantep

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ErzurumsporErzurumspor
Statistic
Gaziantep
Erzurumspor
fouls per game
13.4
11.5

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 66.6% for Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor.
Will there be a red card in Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated Erzurumspor to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 19.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Süper LigGaziantep fixtures and statsErzurumspor fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.