Süper Lig
Gaziantep vs 
Corum Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 53.0%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Gaziantep have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, Corum 2.4 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 53.0% for over 2.5 and 77.4% for at least two goals. Gaziantep have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Corum in 4 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.3% | 6.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 15.2% | 84.8% |
| 5.5 goals | 6.5% | 93.5% |
Team goal lines
82.7%
52.3%
25.7%
64.7%
28.0%
8.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 20.4% | 79.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 29.6% | 70.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Gaziantep goals scored per game1.2Gaziantep goals conceded per game33.3%Gaziantep Over 2.5 rate0.8Gaziantep 1st-half goals per game2.2Corum goals scored per game2.0Corum goals conceded per game83.3%Corum Over 2.5 rate1.0Corum 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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1
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
54.1%Both Teams to Score53.0%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 53.0% for three or more goals and 77.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Gaziantep favoured at 53.5%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Gaziantep to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gaziantep vs Corum?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 53.0% for Gaziantep vs Corum.
Will there be a first-half goal in Gaziantep vs Corum?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 78.8%.
How often have Gaziantep gone over 2.5 recently?
Gaziantep have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Corum in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,270 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
