AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
Fleetwood TownFleetwood TownWDLLL
Full time1-1Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:00UK
WalsallWalsallDDDWD

Fleetwood Town 1-1 Walsall cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.6%

Result

Fleetwood Town1-1Walsall
7 yellow cardsFleetwood Town 4, Walsall 3
0 red cardsFleetwood Town 0, Walsall 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 50.4% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 90.7% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.4%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

J Robinson

Recorded match referee.

J Robinson in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 5 5
Goals 2.80 2.80
Yellow cards 4.40 4.40
Red cards 0.40 0.40
Corners 9.6 9.6
Fouls 27.2 27.2
Both teams scored 80% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 60% 60%
Home wins 0% 0%
Latest 5 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
17 Oct 2026 Tranmere vs Barnet 1-2 3 Yes 5 1 7 26
10 Oct 2026 Fleetwood Town vs Walsall 1-1 2 Yes 7 0 8 24
26 Sep 2026 Shrewsbury vs Colchester 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 12 30
19 Sep 2026 Accrington vs Newport County 0-0 0 No 4 0 9 32
5 Sep 2026 Rochdale vs Gillingham 1-4 5 Yes 3 1 12 24

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Fleetwood Town vs Walsall. The model leans toward Walsall for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.3% 28.7%
3.5 cards 50.4% 49.6%
4.5 cards 31.1% 68.9%
5.5 cards 16.9% 83.1%

Who picks up more cards

Fleetwood Town
36.9%
Level
21.6%
Walsall
41.5%

Team cards lines

Fleetwood Town

Over 1.5
53.4%
Over 2.5
26.6%

Walsall

Over 1.5
56.7%
Over 2.5
29.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Fleetwood Town's; Walsall gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Fleetwood Town line Fleetwood Town Walsall
-1.5 19.1% 80.9%
-0.5 36.9% 63.1%
+0.5 58.5% 41.5%
+1.5 77.4% 22.6%

Red card

Any red card9.3%
Fleetwood Town red card2.4%
Walsall red card7.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 68.4% 31.6%
22.5 fouls 53.3% 46.7%
24.5 fouls 38.1% 61.9%
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Fleetwood Town at home and Walsall away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

WalsallWalsall
Statistic
Fleetwood Town
Walsall
Cards per game at this venue
1.5
2.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.0
1.0

Yellow cards per game
2.3
2.1

Red cards this season
0
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 50.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 71.3% for over 2.5 to 16.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.4%. Between the two sides, Walsall are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 21.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Fleetwood Town over 1.5 cards sits at 53.4% and Walsall at 56.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.3% (Fleetwood Town 2.4%, Walsall 7.2%). This season Fleetwood Town have averaged 2.3 cards a game and Walsall 2.1.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

50.4%Over 3.5 cards
9.3%Any red card
41.5%Most cards: Walsall
53.4%Fleetwood Town over 1.5 cards
56.7%Walsall over 1.5 cards
53.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 9.3%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianWalsall are the pick to collect more cards at 41.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 50.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

WalsallWalsall
Statistic
Fleetwood Town
Walsall
cards per game
2.3
2.1

fouls per game
12.9
12.0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Fleetwood Town vs Walsall?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.4% for Fleetwood Town vs Walsall.
Will there be a red card in Fleetwood Town vs Walsall?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Fleetwood Town vs Walsall?
Before kickoff, the model rated Walsall to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoFleetwood Town fixtures and statsWalsall fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.