AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

Serie A
FiorentinaFiorentinaDLLLD
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1119:45UK13°C · Rain
JuventusJuventusDLWLW

Fiorentina vs Juventus xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Fiorentina1.66

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Juventus1.27

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Fiorentina have created 1.66 xG and scored 1.67 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Juventus have created 1.27 xG and scored 1.17 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

FiorentinaFiorentina

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

JuventusJuventus
Statistic
Fiorentina
Juventus
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.66
1.27

xG conceded per game
1.76
0.71

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

FiorentinaFiorentinaLast 5
D
Draw · 1-1
L
Loss · 1-2
L
Loss · 1-3
L
Loss · 1-2
D
Draw · 2-2

0 wins · 2 draws · 3 losses

JuventusJuventusLast 5
D
Draw · 1-1
L
Loss · 0-3
W
Win · 2-0
L
Loss · 0-2
W
Win · 2-0

2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2FiorentinaFiorentina wins
2Draws
1JuventusJuventus wins
2.4Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
JuventusJuventus
0 – 2
FiorentinaFiorentina
FiorentinaFiorentina
1 – 1
JuventusJuventus
FiorentinaFiorentina
3 – 0
JuventusJuventus
JuventusJuventus
2 – 2
FiorentinaFiorentina
JuventusJuventus
1 – 0
FiorentinaFiorentina

Match outlook

Fiorentina20.9%
Draw25.5%
PickJuventus53.5%

The model leans Juventus to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0102Calibration error (1X2)
47.8%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,177Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

53.5%Favoured: Juventus
48.7%Both Teams to Score
45.7%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

FiorentinaFiorentina (1)
Moise Kean
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
35.4%
2.82
1+ shot on target
72.3%
1.38
2+ shots
83.2%
1.20
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.69
On target1.47
Goals0.50
JuventusJuventus (1)
Edon Zhegrova
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
9.2%
10.87
1+ shot on target
49.3%
2.03
2+ shots
38.1%
2.62
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots4.40
On target2.26
Goals0.32

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Serie A, Expected Goals (xG)

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Related

Serie AFiorentina fixtures and statsJuventus fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.