AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
BenficaBenficaWWLWW
Mon, 2 Nov 20262/1120:15UK
AlvercaAlvercaLWWWL

Benfica vs Alverca corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined50.4%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined49.6%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners49.6%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Benfica.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 71.6% 28.4%
8.5 corners 60.8% 39.2%
9.5 corners 49.6% 50.4%
10.5 corners 38.9% 61.1%
11.5 corners 29.3% 70.7%
12.5 corners 21.3% 78.7%

Who wins the corner count

Benfica
62.4%
Level
9.3%
Alverca
28.3%

Team corners lines

Benfica

Over 3.5
76.0%
Over 4.5
62.7%
Over 5.5
49.1%

Alverca

Over 3.5
52.5%
Over 4.5
36.4%
Over 5.5
23.6%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Benfica's; Alverca gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Benfica line Benfica Alverca
-3.5 33.0% 67.0%
-1.5 52.4% 47.6%
-0.5 62.4% 37.6%
+0.5 71.7% 28.3%
BenficaBenfica

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Benfica at home and Alverca away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

AlvercaAlverca
Statistic
Benfica
Alverca
Corners won per game at this venue
11.0
4.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
2.0
5.0

First-half corners won per game
4.6
1.8

Second-half corners won per game
3.1
2.8

Matches with more corners than the opponent
87.5%
55.6%

Matches with corner data
8
9

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–11 · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 49.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.6% for over 7.5 to 21.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.6%. On the corner count, Benfica are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 62.4%, with a level count at 9.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Benfica over 4.5 corners sits at 62.7% and Alverca at 36.4%. This season Benfica have averaged 7.8 corners won a game and Alverca 4.6.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

49.6%Over 9.5 corners
62.4%Most corners: Benfica
62.7%Benfica over 4.5 corners
36.4%Alverca over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.6% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderBenfica are the pick to win the corner count at 62.4%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 49.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
BenficaBenfica

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

AlvercaAlverca
Statistic
Benfica
Alverca
corners won per game
7.8
4.6

corners conceded per game
2.3
3.6

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Benfica vs Alverca?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 49.6% for Benfica vs Alverca.
Which team will win the corner count in Benfica vs Alverca?
The model rates Benfica to win the corner count at 62.4%, with a level count at 9.3%.
How many corners do Benfica and Alverca average this season?
Benfica have won 7.8 corners a game this season and Alverca 4.6.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Primeira LigaBenfica fixtures and statsAlverca fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.