AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
ExeterExeterLWWDW
Full time2-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
Fleetwood TownFleetwood TownLLDWL

Exeter 2-1 Fleetwood Town cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45%

Result

Exeter2-1Fleetwood Town
2 yellow cardsExeter 2, Fleetwood Town 0
0 red cardsExeter 0, Fleetwood Town 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 55.1% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 95.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Exeter vs Fleetwood Town. It tips Fleetwood Town for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.0% 25.0%
3.5 cards 55.1% 45.0%
4.5 cards 35.5% 64.5%
5.5 cards 20.2% 79.8%

Who picks up more cards

Exeter
27.8%
Level
20.0%
Fleetwood Town
52.2%

Team cards lines

Exeter

Over 1.5
48.9%
Over 2.5
22.8%

Fleetwood Town

Over 1.5
66.4%
Over 2.5
39.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Exeter's; Fleetwood Town gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Exeter line Exeter Fleetwood Town
-1.5 13.2% 86.8%
-0.5 27.8% 72.2%
+0.5 47.8% 52.2%
+1.5 68.1% 31.9%

Red card

Any red card4.6%
Exeter red card3.1%
Fleetwood Town red card1.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.9% 26.1%
22.5 fouls 59.7% 40.3%
24.5 fouls 44.5% 55.5%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.0% for over 2.5 to 20.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.1%. Between the two sides, Fleetwood Town are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.2%, with a level count at 20.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Exeter over 1.5 cards sits at 48.9% and Fleetwood Town at 66.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 4.6% (Exeter 3.1%, Fleetwood Town 1.6%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

55.1%Over 3.5 cards
4.6%Any red card
52.2%Most cards: Fleetwood Town
48.9%Exeter over 1.5 cards
66.4%Fleetwood Town over 1.5 cards
59.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 4.6%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianFleetwood Town are the pick to collect more cards at 52.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 55.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Exeter vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.1% for Exeter vs Fleetwood Town.
Will there be a red card in Exeter vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 4.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Exeter vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated Fleetwood Town to pick up more cards at 52.2%, with a level count at 20.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoExeter fixtures and statsFleetwood Town fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.