AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
ExeterExeterLWWDW
Full time2-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
Fleetwood TownFleetwood TownLLDWL

Exeter 2-1 Fleetwood Town corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined52.3%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined47.7%

Result

Exeter2-1Fleetwood Town
10 cornersExeter 5, Fleetwood Town 5
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 52.3% and it landed (10 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners52.3%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Exeter.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 75.0% 25.1%
8.5 corners 64.0% 36.0%
9.5 corners 52.3% 47.7%
10.5 corners 40.8% 59.2%
11.5 corners 30.5% 69.5%
12.5 corners 21.8% 78.2%

Who wins the corner count

Exeter
57.5%
Level
10.3%
Fleetwood Town
32.2%

Team corners lines

Exeter

Over 3.5
76.4%
Over 4.5
62.0%
Over 5.5
47.1%

Fleetwood Town

Over 3.5
60.1%
Over 4.5
43.0%
Over 5.5
28.4%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Exeter's; Fleetwood Town gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Exeter line Exeter Fleetwood Town
-3.5 26.8% 73.2%
-1.5 46.7% 53.3%
-0.5 57.5% 42.5%
+0.5 67.8% 32.2%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 52.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 75.0% for over 7.5 to 21.8% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.3%. On the corner count, Exeter are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.5%, with a level count at 10.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

52.3%Over 9.5 corners
57.5%Most corners: Exeter
62.0%Exeter over 4.5 corners
43.0%Fleetwood Town over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

For the team lines, Exeter over 4.5 corners sits at 62.0% and Fleetwood Town at 43.0%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.3% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderExeter are the pick to win the corner count at 57.5%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 52.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many corners in Exeter vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 52.3% for Exeter vs Fleetwood Town.
Which team will win the corner count in Exeter vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated Exeter to win the corner count at 57.5%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

League TwoExeter fixtures and statsFleetwood Town fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.