EredivisieExcelsior Rotterdam vs 
Groningen Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 32.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 54.4% for over 2.5 to 7.4% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. Head to head on cards, Groningen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.5%, with a level count at 24.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 7.4% | 92.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
35.0%
13.0%
48.2%
22.6%
Card handicap
| Excelsior Rotterdam line | Excelsior Rotterdam | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| -0.5 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| +0.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| +1.5 | 75.6% | 24.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 33.1% | 66.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 20.9% | 79.1% |
This season (2026/27)
0.9Groningen cards per game8.3Groningen fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Excelsior Rotterdam vs Groningen. Slightly more cards are projected for Groningen for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
32.3%Over 3.5 cards10.0%Any red card35.0%Excelsior Rotterdam over 1.5 cards48.2%Groningen over 1.5 cards33.1%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Excelsior Rotterdam over 1.5 cards sits at 35.0% and Groningen at 48.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.0% (Excelsior Rotterdam 4.5%, Groningen 5.7%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Excelsior Rotterdam vs Groningen?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 32.3% for Excelsior Rotterdam vs Groningen.
Will there be a red card in Excelsior Rotterdam vs Groningen?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Excelsior Rotterdam vs Groningen?
The model rates Groningen to pick up more cards at 46.5%, with a level count at 24.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 7,328 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
