EredivisieExcelsior Rotterdam vs 
Groningen Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 63.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.7% for over 22.5 to 41.4% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.4%. Between the two sides, Excelsior Rotterdam are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.5%, with a level count at 5.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 41.4% | 58.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
77.3%
63.6%
48.9%
64.0%
47.8%
33.0%
Shot handicap
| Excelsior Rotterdam line | Excelsior Rotterdam | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| -2.5 | 47.3% | 52.8% |
| -0.5 | 58.5% | 41.6% |
| +0.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 85.6% | 14.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 57.1% | 42.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
14.9Groningen shots per game15.1Groningen shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Excelsior Rotterdam.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
63.5%Over 24.5 shots63.6%Excelsior Rotterdam over 12.5 shots47.8%Groningen over 12.5 shots77.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Excelsior Rotterdam over 12.5 shots sits at 63.6% and Groningen at 47.8%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Excelsior Rotterdam vs Groningen?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 63.5% for Excelsior Rotterdam vs Groningen.
Which team will have more shots in Excelsior Rotterdam vs Groningen?
The model rates Excelsior Rotterdam to take more shots at 58.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 2,773 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
