AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

Primeira Liga
EstorilEstorilLLLLL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1115:30UK
MaritimoMaritimoLDLLL

Estoril vs Maritimo corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined55.5%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined44.5%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners44.5%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Estoril.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 67.3% 32.8%
8.5 corners 55.8% 44.2%
9.5 corners 44.5% 55.5%
10.5 corners 34.0% 66.0%
11.5 corners 25.0% 75.0%
12.5 corners 17.7% 82.4%

Who wins the corner count

Estoril
52.6%
Level
10.3%
Maritimo
37.2%

Team corners lines

Estoril

Over 3.5
67.8%
Over 4.5
52.9%
Over 5.5
38.9%

Maritimo

Over 3.5
57.0%
Over 4.5
41.1%
Over 5.5
27.7%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Estoril's; Maritimo gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Estoril line Estoril Maritimo
-1.5 42.2% 57.8%
-0.5 52.6% 47.4%
+0.5 62.8% 37.2%
+1.5 72.2% 27.8%
EstorilEstoril

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Estoril at home and Maritimo away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MaritimoMaritimo
Statistic
Estoril
Maritimo
Corners won per game at this venue
7.0
3.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
3.8
3.5

First-half corners won per game
2.5
1.9

Second-half corners won per game
2.4
1.0

Matches with more corners than the opponent
62.5%
25.0%

Matches with corner data
8
8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0096Calibration error
51,077Matches graded

In 21,999 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 52.5%✓ 50.2%✗ 50.6%✓ 56.9%✗ 50.6%✓ 53.7%✗ 51.8%✓ 62.7%✗ 61.2%✓ 61.5%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Liverpool vs Arsenal2026-11-01Over 9.5 52.5%Hit
Union Berlin vs FC Koln2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.2%Hit
Ein Frankfurt vs Hamburg2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.6%Miss
Getafe vs Sevilla2026-11-01Under 9.5 56.9%Hit
Santander vs Real Madrid2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.6%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 44.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.3% for over 7.5 to 17.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.5%. On the corner count, Estoril are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.6%, with a level count at 10.3%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Estoril over 4.5 corners sits at 52.9% and Maritimo at 41.1%. This season Estoril have averaged 4.9 corners won a game and Maritimo 2.9.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

44.5%Over 9.5 corners
52.6%Most corners: Estoril
52.9%Estoril over 4.5 corners
41.1%Maritimo over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 44.5% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderEstoril are the pick to win the corner count at 52.6%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 44.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
EstorilEstoril

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MaritimoMaritimo
Statistic
Estoril
Maritimo
corners won per game
4.9
2.9

corners conceded per game
4.8
4.5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Estoril vs Maritimo?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 44.5% for Estoril vs Maritimo.
Which team will win the corner count in Estoril vs Maritimo?
The model rates Estoril to win the corner count at 52.6%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How many corners do Estoril and Maritimo average this season?
Estoril have won 4.9 corners a game this season and Maritimo 2.9.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Primeira LigaEstoril fixtures and statsMaritimo fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.