AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 31 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
DresdenDresdenDLDWL
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1117:30UK
Greuther FurthGreuther FurthDDLWL

Dresden vs Greuther Furth cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.8%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards57.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Dresden vs Greuther Furth. It tips Greuther Furth for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.6% 23.4%
3.5 cards 57.2% 42.8%
4.5 cards 37.6% 62.4%
5.5 cards 21.9% 78.1%

Who picks up more cards

Dresden
37.4%
Level
20.6%
Greuther Furth
42.0%

Team cards lines

Dresden

Over 1.5
58.1%
Over 2.5
31.1%

Greuther Furth

Over 1.5
61.3%
Over 2.5
34.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Dresden's; Greuther Furth gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Dresden line Dresden Greuther Furth
-1.5 20.1% 79.9%
-0.5 37.4% 62.6%
+0.5 58.0% 42.0%
+1.5 76.4% 23.7%

Red card

Any red card14.0%
Dresden red card9.5%
Greuther Furth red card5.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 57.5% 42.5%
22.5 fouls 42.5% 57.5%
24.5 fouls 29.0% 71.0%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Greuther Furth Felix Weller 2 2.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

DresdenDresden

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Dresden at home and Greuther Furth away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Greuther FurthGreuther Furth
Statistic
Dresden
Greuther Furth
Cards per game at this venue
·
0.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
2.3

Yellow cards per game
2.1
1.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
0.1

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.5
0.9

Matches with card data
4
5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 11,340 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 31 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 57.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 76.6% for over 2.5 to 21.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.2%. Head to head on cards, Greuther Furth are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.0%, with a level count at 20.6%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Dresden over 1.5 cards sits at 58.1% and Greuther Furth at 61.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.0% (Dresden 9.5%, Greuther Furth 5.0%). Greuther Furth’s most frequent referee this season, Felix Weller, has averaged 2.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

57.2%Over 3.5 cards
14.0%Any red card
42.0%Most cards: Greuther Furth
58.1%Dresden over 1.5 cards
61.3%Greuther Furth over 1.5 cards
42.5%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 57.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherFelix Weller, Greuther Furth’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.0%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianGreuther Furth are the pick to collect more cards at 42.0%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
DresdenDresden

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Greuther FurthGreuther Furth
Statistic
Dresden
Greuther Furth
fouls per game
10.3
8.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Dresden vs Greuther Furth?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 57.2% for Dresden vs Greuther Furth.
Will there be a red card in Dresden vs Greuther Furth?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Dresden vs Greuther Furth?
The model rates Greuther Furth to pick up more cards at 42.0%, with a level count at 20.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

2. BundesligaDresden fixtures and statsGreuther Furth fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.