AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
HannoverHannoverLWLDL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1112:30UK
DresdenDresdenDLDWL

Hannover vs Dresden cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined62.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined37.9%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards62.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hannover vs Dresden. The model leans toward Dresden for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 80.1% 19.9%
3.5 cards 62.1% 37.9%
4.5 cards 42.8% 57.3%
5.5 cards 26.2% 73.8%

Who picks up more cards

Hannover
39.4%
Level
19.9%
Dresden
40.7%

Team cards lines

Hannover

Over 1.5
62.7%
Over 2.5
35.8%

Dresden

Over 1.5
63.6%
Over 2.5
36.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Hannover's; Dresden gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Hannover line Hannover Dresden
-1.5 22.1% 77.9%
-0.5 39.4% 60.6%
+0.5 59.3% 40.7%
+1.5 76.9% 23.1%

Red card

Any red card15.0%
Hannover red card4.7%
Dresden red card10.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 66.4% 33.6%
22.5 fouls 52.0% 48.0%
24.5 fouls 37.8% 62.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Hannover Timo Gansloweit 2 4.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

HannoverHannover

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Hannover at home and Dresden away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

DresdenDresden
Statistic
Hannover
Dresden
Cards per game at this venue
·
3.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
4.0

Yellow cards per game
2.2
2.0

First-half yellow cards per game
1.4
0.9

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
1.3

Matches with card data
4
5
Red cards this season
·
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 62.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 80.1% for over 2.5 to 26.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.8%. Between the two sides, Dresden are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 19.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Hannover over 1.5 cards sits at 62.7% and Dresden at 63.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.0% (Hannover 4.7%, Dresden 10.8%). Hannover’s most frequent referee this season, Timo Gansloweit, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

62.1%Over 3.5 cards
15.0%Any red card
40.7%Most cards: Dresden
62.7%Hannover over 1.5 cards
63.6%Dresden over 1.5 cards
52.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 62.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherTimo Gansloweit, Hannover’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.0%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianDresden are the pick to collect more cards at 40.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
HannoverHannover

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

DresdenDresden
Statistic
Hannover
Dresden
fouls per game
12.3
9.7

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Hannover vs Dresden?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 62.1% for Hannover vs Dresden.
Will there be a red card in Hannover vs Dresden?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Hannover vs Dresden?
The model rates Dresden to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

2. BundesligaHannover fixtures and statsDresden fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.