AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
Greuther FurthGreuther FurthDDLWL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1112:30UK
Holstein KielHolstein KielLDLDW

Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined67.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined32.4%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards67.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel. Slightly more cards are projected for Holstein Kiel for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 83.8% 16.2%
3.5 cards 67.6% 32.4%
4.5 cards 48.9% 51.1%
5.5 cards 31.6% 68.4%

Who picks up more cards

Greuther Furth
27.9%
Level
18.2%
Holstein Kiel
53.8%

Team cards lines

Greuther Furth

Over 1.5
57.8%
Over 2.5
30.7%

Holstein Kiel

Over 1.5
74.6%
Over 2.5
49.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Greuther Furth's; Holstein Kiel gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Greuther Furth line Greuther Furth Holstein Kiel
-1.5 14.2% 85.8%
-0.5 27.9% 72.1%
+0.5 46.2% 53.8%
+1.5 65.0% 35.0%

Red card

Any red card17.0%
Greuther Furth red card3.2%
Holstein Kiel red card14.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.8% 26.2%
22.5 fouls 60.5% 39.5%
24.5 fouls 46.4% 53.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Greuther Furth Felix Weller 2 2.5 1.5
Holstein Kiel Jarno Wienefeld 2 6.5 3.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Greuther FurthGreuther Furth

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Greuther Furth at home and Holstein Kiel away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Holstein KielHolstein Kiel
Statistic
Greuther Furth
Holstein Kiel
Yellow cards per game
0.9
3.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.1
1.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
2.0

Matches with more cards than the opponent
16.7%
83.3%

Matches with card data
6
6
Red cards this season
0
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 67.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 83.8% for over 2.5 to 31.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.9%. Head to head on cards, Holstein Kiel are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.8%, with a level count at 18.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Greuther Furth over 1.5 cards sits at 57.8% and Holstein Kiel at 74.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.0% (Greuther Furth 3.2%, Holstein Kiel 14.2%). Greuther Furth’s most frequent referee this season, Felix Weller, has averaged 2.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Greuther Furth have averaged 0.7 cards a game and Holstein Kiel 3.7.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

67.6%Over 3.5 cards
17.0%Any red card
53.8%Most cards: Holstein Kiel
57.8%Greuther Furth over 1.5 cards
74.6%Holstein Kiel over 1.5 cards
60.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 67.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherFelix Weller, Greuther Furth’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.0%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianHolstein Kiel are the pick to collect more cards at 53.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Greuther FurthGreuther Furth

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Holstein KielHolstein Kiel
Statistic
Greuther Furth
Holstein Kiel
cards per game
0.7
3.7

fouls per game
8.3
14.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 67.6% for Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel.
Will there be a red card in Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel?
The model rates Holstein Kiel to pick up more cards at 53.8%, with a level count at 18.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

2. BundesligaGreuther Furth fixtures and statsHolstein Kiel fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.