AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
St PauliSt PauliWDWDD
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1112:30UK
NurnbergNurnbergWWDDL

St Pauli vs Nurnberg cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined65.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined34.3%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards65.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for St Pauli vs Nurnberg. The model leans toward Nurnberg for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 82.6% 17.4%
3.5 cards 65.7% 34.3%
4.5 cards 46.7% 53.3%
5.5 cards 29.6% 70.4%

Who picks up more cards

St Pauli
36.9%
Level
19.4%
Nurnberg
43.7%

Team cards lines

St Pauli

Over 1.5
63.4%
Over 2.5
36.5%

Nurnberg

Over 1.5
67.9%
Over 2.5
41.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is St Pauli's; Nurnberg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

St Pauli line St Pauli Nurnberg
-1.5 20.5% 79.5%
-0.5 36.9% 63.1%
+0.5 56.3% 43.7%
+1.5 74.0% 26.0%

Red card

Any red card6.0%
St Pauli red card3.7%
Nurnberg red card2.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 70.4% 29.7%
22.5 fouls 56.5% 43.5%
24.5 fouls 42.2% 57.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
St Pauli F. Prigan 2 4.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

St PauliSt Pauli

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means St Pauli at home and Nurnberg away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NurnbergNurnberg
Statistic
St Pauli
Nurnberg
Yellow cards per game
2.2
2.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.9

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.6
1.1

Matches with more cards than the opponent
50.0%
·

Matches with card data
6
5
Red cards this season
1
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 65.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 82.6% for over 2.5 to 29.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.7%. On the card count, Nurnberg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 19.4%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, St Pauli over 1.5 cards sits at 63.4% and Nurnberg at 67.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.0% (St Pauli 3.7%, Nurnberg 2.4%). St Pauli’s most frequent referee this season, F. Prigan, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

65.7%Over 3.5 cards
6.0%Any red card
43.7%Most cards: Nurnberg
63.4%St Pauli over 1.5 cards
67.9%Nurnberg over 1.5 cards
56.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 65.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherF. Prigan, St Pauli’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 6.0%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianNurnberg are the pick to collect more cards at 43.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
St PauliSt Pauli

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NurnbergNurnberg
Statistic
St Pauli
Nurnberg
cards per game
2.3
·

fouls per game
11.2
10.7

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in St Pauli vs Nurnberg?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 65.7% for St Pauli vs Nurnberg.
Will there be a red card in St Pauli vs Nurnberg?
The model rates a red card for either side at 6.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in St Pauli vs Nurnberg?
The model rates Nurnberg to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 19.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

2. BundesligaSt Pauli fixtures and statsNurnberg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.