Dijon 1-2 Rodez cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Dijon1-2Rodez
We called Under 3.5 at 53.6% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 92.7% and it landed (0 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 3.5 cards46.4%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Dijon vs Rodez. Slightly more cards are projected for Rodez for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.9% | 32.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.2% | 85.8% |
Who picks up more cards
DijonRodezTeam cards lines
Dijon
Rodez
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Dijon's; Rodez gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Dijon line | Dijon | Rodez |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.3% | 82.7% |
| -0.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| +0.5 | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| +1.5 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 89.6% | 10.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 80.9% | 19.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 69.3% | 30.7% |
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Dijon at home and Rodez away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 46.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.9% for over 2.5 to 14.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.4%. Head to head on cards, Rodez are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 22.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Dijon over 1.5 cards sits at 49.2% and Rodez at 55.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.4% (Dijon 4.9%, Rodez 2.6%).
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Dijon vs Rodez?
Will there be a red card in Dijon vs Rodez?
Which team will pick up more cards in Dijon vs Rodez?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Ligue 2, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
